Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading near $0.26 today, but one analyst believes history could push it above $10 by the end of 2025 — about 45× higher than its current price. Is that realistic? Let’s analyze.
Analyst Identifies Repeating Multi-Cycle Pattern
Crypto analyst DOGECAPITAL has projected that Dogecoin could reach $11.71 by the end of 2025 if it repeats the breakout pattern seen in previous market cycles. In a chart shared on X, he highlighted a long-term yellow resistance line that preceded major rallies in 2017 and 2021.
The analyst noted that Dogecoin’s first breakout above this line in 2017 resulted in an 83× rally, while the second in 2021 produced a 183× move. Now, with Dogecoin again approaching the same resistance, he forecasts a 37× rise from an estimated 2025 base of $0.31, setting the target near $11.71.
According to DOGECAPITAL, a weekly close above the yellow resistance would signal the beginning of a new parabolic phase similar to the past two cycles.
DOGE Faces Resistance Near $0.30, Eyes Channel Breakout
TradingView data shows Dogecoin moving inside a rising parallel channel that has contained price action since May 2025. The lower boundary acts as support near $0.22, while the upper boundary forms resistance around $0.30–$0.31 — the same area highlighted in DOGECAPITAL’s chart. DOGE price has tested this upper band three times since August but has not closed above it.
The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is $0.25, and the 50-day EMA is $0.23. Both are sloping upward, confirming short-term trend strength. The 100-day EMA lies at $0.21, and the 200-day EMA at $0.19, showing solid long-term support.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64, below the overbought threshold of 70, implying bullish momentum with room for expansion. However, 24-hour trading volume averages $2.18 billion, roughly 25% below its 90-day average, indicating accumulation but not yet breakout participation.
Breakout above $0.30 with sustained volume could lift DOGE toward $0.70–$1.20 by late 2025. If DOGE price fails to cross $0.30, it is likely to oscillate between $0.22–$0.27, maintaining sideways momentum. A daily close below $0.22 would invalidate the current rising channel and expose downside to $0.18–$0.15, near the 200-day EMA.
Dogecoin’s Derivatives Data Show Leverage Concentration
Dogecoin’s futures open interest (OI) reached $5.03 billion on Oct. 7, its highest since January 2025. This OI equals 12.6% of DOGE’s total market capitalization, signaling that leveraged exposure in derivatives markets is substantial.
The funding rate remains positive at +0.021%, meaning long traders are paying short traders to maintain their positions. Positive funding confirms a bullish bias among perpetual futures traders.
Liquidation data show $4.26 million in long liquidations and $896,000 in short liquidations over the past 24 hours. The imbalance indicates that despite recent volatility, the majority of leveraged traders are still positioned for upside. However, such high OI levels can amplify volatility if a sudden reversal triggers mass liquidations.
The broader market environment remains constructive. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $125,000, maintaining its uptrend inside a long-term ascending channel.
Historically, Dogecoin’s strongest rallies occurred late in Bitcoin’s bull markets. If Bitcoin consolidates above $115,000, liquidity could continue flowing into high-beta assets like DOGE.
$10 Target Requires $1.5 Trillion Market Cap
Dogecoin’s circulating supply as of Oct. 7 is 151.3 billion DOGE. At a hypothetical price of $10, the market capitalization would reach $1.513 trillion. That equals roughly 38% of Bitcoin’s current $3.96 trillion market cap and exceeds that of every publicly listed company except Apple.
To sustain such valuation, the global cryptocurrency market would need to expand to at least $15 trillion, more than triple its present size.
Given Dogecoin’s annual supply inflation of about 3.6% (≈5 billion new DOGE per year), maintaining this valuation would require unmatched inflows of speculative or institutional capital.
None of the datasets currently suggest momentum strong enough for a 45× rise to $11.71. The liquidity, volume, and whale activity levels are materially lower than those observed in 2021.
Stay with us for continuing coverage as market structure, liquidity flows, and institutional sentiment determine whether Dogecoin’s next cycle can turn speculation into sustained momentum.
