Dogecoin (DOGE) recently received a positive update: the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially acknowledged Nasdaq’s filing to list and trade shares of the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF. This marks the beginning of the regulatory review process for the ETF.
The announcement did not cause much movement in Dogecoin’s price. The price only reached around $0.24—well within its recent trading range. ETF-related announcements typically fuel strong rallies, especially in highly speculative assets like DOGE. Yet in this case, the reaction was muted compared to what was expected.
It seems like the ETF news may have already been priced in. The original ETF filing by 21Shares was made back in April, and DOGE had already surged over 50% in early May. In other words, the ETF update acted more as a confirmation than a catalyst.
Dogecoin Active Addresses Drop from 650K to 347K
On-chain data from Santiment shows that DOGE’s active 24-hour addresses spiked to over 650,000 during the ETF announcement but quickly dropped to 347,000. This sharp fall indicates a decline in immediate network activity following the price correction. A rise in active addresses often reflects rising user interest or trading activity.
Sustained network growth requires consistent user activity—not short bursts tied to news events. A healthy rally is usually supported by a gradually increasing number of active addresses, which is not the case here.
Futures Open Interest (OI) has also risen along with the price, indicating fresh money entering the market. However, the OI-weighted funding rate remains positive, implying that most of that money is betting long. This creates an imbalance: if the price doesn’t rise, those long positions may begin to unwind, triggering a cascade of liquidations—a classic “long squeeze.”
Funding rate data further supports this. DOGE’s funding rates remain positive, indicating more long positions than short ones. When funding rates stay high while the price stops moving up, it can lead to a flush as over-leveraged longs are forced to exit.
From a risk management standpoint, this setup is fragile. There needs to be a breakout supported by spot volume, not just derivatives speculation.
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Technical Indicators Signal Weakness
Dogecoin’s recent price action shows clear signs of exhaustion after failing to break above the $0.24 resistance. The 4-hour chart reveals that DOGE is trading below the 20 EMA ($0.23042), with the 50 EMA ($0.21889) acting as near-term support. The 100 EMA at $0.20410 represents the next key level if the price fails to hold above current support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 46.60, slipping below the neutral 50 mark. This indicates that buying pressure has weakened, and bears may be gaining control in the short term. Additionally, the MACD histogram is flattening, suggesting a possible bearish crossover if momentum doesn’t return soon.
Volume has also declined since the ETF acknowledgment rally, signaling reduced participation. Without a surge in spot buying interest, DOGE may continue to consolidate or face further downside pressure.
If DOGE closes above $0.24 with strong volume, it could attempt a move toward the next resistance at $0.265. However, if it breaks below the $0.218 level, the price may fall toward $0.20—a psychologically important support zone. A further breakdown below $0.20 would expose DOGE to a drop toward the $0.182 area, where the 200 EMA currently resides.
