Ethereum just broke out of a bullish wedge and jumped 5%, while Arthur Hayes says the real move is still ahead. Let’s explore what the charts and macro trends suggest next.
Ethereum Breaks Out of Falling Wedge, Eyes 39% Climb Toward $3,570
As of May 21, 2025, the 4-hour chart of Ethereum (ETHUSD) on Bitstamp shows the formation of a falling wedge pattern. A falling wedge is a bullish reversal pattern where the price consolidates between two downward-sloping, converging trendlines. It often signals weakening bearish momentum and a possible upward breakout.
Ethereum’s price broke above the wedge resistance and is now up approximately 5% from the breakout point, currently trading around $2,592.20. This move occurred above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which stands at $2,481.40. The EMA now acts as a dynamic support level, further reinforcing the breakout’s strength.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.16, rising above the neutral 50 line. This shows growing bullish momentum but remains below the overbought zone, leaving room for further upside.
If this breakout confirms with sustained volume and momentum, Ethereum’s price could rise by nearly 39% from the current level. This would set a target near $3,570.80, based on the height of the wedge added to the breakout point.
Volume remains moderate at 1.51K, suggesting that more trading activity could support the bullish move. The price action also follows a prior sharp upward rally on May 9, which formed the wedge’s base, strengthening the case for continuation.
If Ethereum holds above the wedge and the 50-period EMA, and if RSI keeps climbing, the breakout scenario toward $3,570.80 remains valid.
Arthur Hayes Predicts Ethereum Could Hit $10K to $15K as Global Liquidity Shifts
Meanwhile, in a recent interview on the Bankless podcast, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX and current Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, explained why he believes Ethereum (ETH) could surge to $10,000 or even $15,000. He tied this prediction to deep structural changes in the global financial system and said Ethereum’s rally reflects broader shifts in liquidity and investor behavior.
When asked why Ethereum’s price jumped more than 50% in a week, Hayes dismissed technical chart patterns. Instead, he pointed to market sentiment. According to him, assets that have been heavily criticized tend to rebound fastest when a new market cycle begins.
“The most hated asset goes up the fastest in the next cycle,”
Hayes said.
“It’s just human nature.”
He explained that Ethereum had been largely ignored in favor of other tokens like Solana. The ETH-to-BTC ratio had dropped, and ETH’s popularity had faded. Hayes believed this set the stage for a strong comeback.
“ETH was kind of dead. Everyone hated it. The BTC/ETH ratio was falling, Solana was running… it was time,”
he said.
Ethereum’s Long-Term Target: $10,000 to $15,000
Although Hayes hasn’t added to his Ethereum position recently, he said he remains long on ETH. He views the current price increase as just the beginning.
“It’s great it’s going up, but okay—let’s talk at $10,000 or $15,000. Let’s talk when it’s meaningful,”
he said.
Hayes framed Ethereum’s rally within a broader macroeconomic trend that he calls a “phase shift.” Hayes believes the world is moving away from U.S. Treasuries as the core of the global financial system. In the future, he expects capital to shift toward neutral store-of-value assets like gold and Bitcoin.
In this new financial landscape, Ethereum stands out as a higher-risk, higher-reward trade. Hayes said that as global central banks print more money and capital controls increase, Ethereum could benefit from a rise in speculative risk flows.
“They print the money,”
he said.
“And the consequence will be gold and Bitcoin going through the roof.”
Even though he considers Bitcoin and gold to be the primary reserve assets in a politically divided world, Hayes sees Ethereum as a powerful asset for those looking for asymmetric gains. He acknowledged that Ethereum has underperformed compared to Bitcoin, but he believes that will change.
Regulatory Clarity and DeFi Could Drive ETH Higher
Hayes said Ethereum’s next big move could be triggered by clearer regulations or a renewed focus on decentralized finance (DeFi). He pointed to projects like EtherFi and Pendle as examples of how Ethereum-based ecosystems could finally start generating reliable cash flows.
Hayes believes these developments could provide the fundamental support Ethereum needs to justify a much higher valuation.
“If you want to preserve access to capital and spend it how you want, the only things you can own are gold and Bitcoin,”
he said.
“But if you want big upside, Ethereum is the play.”
Hayes also shared how he structures his own portfolio. At Maelstrom, the breakdown is about 60% Bitcoin, 20% Ethereum, and the remaining 20% split between smaller altcoins and token deals. Outside of crypto, he holds physical gold, gold mining stocks, and short-term U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills).
Whether Ether hits the $10,000 mark in 2025 or later, Hayes is preparing for that scenario. He views Ethereum’s current rise as the early phase of a potentially massive rally fueled by global economic shifts.
