On June 16, 2025, the U.S. Court of Appeals is expected to receive a key update in the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple case. The Securities and Exchange Commission must submit a settlement status report. If the agency fails to do so, Ripple will proceed by filing its reply brief, moving the case further into appeals. This legal process follows a joint motion submitted on June 12, where both parties requested Judge Analisa Torres to revise her final ruling.
Ripple’s request focuses on two specific changes: lifting the ban on XRP sales to institutional investors and reducing the $125 million penalty. If granted, these changes would resolve ongoing appeals and finalize the litigation. The court may issue a second 60-day stay to give Judge Torres more time to review the motion.
Analysts Debate Judge Torres’ Likely Response
Judge Torres rejected the first joint motion just one week after it was filed. That swift decision raised questions about how she will respond to the revised request. Pro-crypto attorney Bill Morgan highlighted the fast rejection of the earlier motion as a possible signal:
“It only took 7 days for Judge Torres to reject the last joint motion… Less than 7 days to decide the current joint motion may not be the best sign she will grant it.”
However, Morgan also acknowledged the strength of Ripple’s latest argument. He emphasized that modifying the final judgment is a required part of the broader settlement. If approved, the settlement would end both the appeal and the cross-appeal, reducing the court’s burden.
Despite this, Morgan noted a critical weakness in the motion. He said Ripple and the SEC did not explain why exceptional circumstances warranted this change. Instead, he argued, both parties seem to be pushing a resolution that assumes the court’s agreement:
“Ripple wanted more. The parties are really imposing a fait accompli on the court… it would not surprise at all if [Torres] does not [grant it].”
John E. Deaton, founder of CryptoLaw and a prominent amicus curiae in the case, estimated the chance of approval at 70%.
XRP Price Recovers Amid Legal Optimism
On June 15, XRP rose 1.18% to close at $2.1670, outperforming the broader crypto market, which gained 0.43%. The increase ended a five-day losing streak and reflected expectations of a favorable court ruling in the Ripple case.
XRP has formed a bearish pennant pattern, a structure that typically appears after a sharp decline and signals potential continuation if price breaks below the lower trendline. If this pattern confirms, XRP may fall by approximately 23% from the current level, targeting the $1.7405 zone.
XRP now faces resistance at $2.20. A breakout above this level and sustained movement through the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.2498 may open the way to $2.50 and the May 12 peak of $2.6553.
However, if bears regain control and the price drops below support near $2.15 with volume, the bearish setup may take hold, pushing XRP toward $1.9299 and eventually $1.7405. The outcome of Judge Torres’ decision is expected to play a major role in determining XRP’s next direction.
XRP RSI Breaks Above 50 as Bullish Momentum Rebuilds
As of June 16, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP on the daily chart reads 52.14, crossing back above the neutral 50 mark, which often signals a shift toward bullish momentum. The RSI had been trading below 50 for most of June, reflecting weak buying pressure.
The RSI Moving Average (yellow line) is currently at 46.59, still below the RSI line, suggesting that the upward momentum may continue if the price sustains. This crossover may support short-term bullish behavior, especially if paired with rising volume or a breakout from the bearish pennant pattern visible on the main price chart.
If the RSI climbs toward 60–70, it may indicate stronger buying interest. However, if the RSI fails to hold above 50, it could confirm a temporary bounce rather than a full trend reversal.
MACD Signals Possible Bullish Crossover for XRP
As of June 16, 2025, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for XRP shows early signs of bullish momentum. The MACD line (blue) is at -0.02145, slightly above the signal line (orange) at -0.02285, while the histogram has just turned slightly positive at 0.00139.
This setup suggests a potential bullish crossover, which often indicates the start of upward price movement if confirmed in the following sessions. However, the MACD is still in negative territory, meaning any signal remains tentative and may need additional confirmation from volume or price action.
If the crossover strengthens and the histogram continues to grow above zero, it may support a short-term rally. Otherwise, failure to maintain this momentum could signal another fade in buying pressure.
Bitcoin Holds Ground as Middle East Conflict Intensifies
While XRP gained, Bitcoin also advanced slightly on June 15. The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict remained the dominant factor driving global risk sentiment. Iran’s response to Israeli attacks on June 12 escalated regional tensions, but late-session optimism for a ceasefire supported BTC’s price.
As of early June 16 trading, the Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 51 points, reflecting improved sentiment. Yet uncertainty lingers. Any extended conflict in the region could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, increasing crude oil prices and potentially pushing inflation higher.
Rising energy costs would complicate central banks’ plans to cut interest rates. If inflation spikes, policymakers may consider rate hikes, a move that could dampen economic growth and raise recession concerns in the U.S.
