Cardano (ADA) may be gearing up for a push toward $2, according to several crypto analysts on X. One of them, @Crypto1Martijn, pointed to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $2.01, calling it the next potential price target. Another analyst, Dan Gambardello, claimed that ADA is now “ready to break through its bull market doors.”
Their optimism followed a sharp rally in July, during which ADA surged nearly 70% from $0.55 to $0.93. However, despite the bullish momentum, multiple metrics show that the foundation beneath this price move may be weakening.
Price Action Breaks Structure as Momentum Weakens
After peaking just under $0.93, ADA price dropped below its ascending channel and is currently trading near $0.78. This move has broken the short-term bullish trendline that supported ADA’s July rally.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from 73 to 58, showing a slowdown in upward momentum. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) printed a bearish crossover. The declining daily volume suggests reduced buying interest.
While ADA remains above the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages, the 20-day EMA near $0.76 is being tested. A breakdown below this level could lead to further losses.
Cardano User Activity and Network Usage Lag Behind Price
On-chain data shows that ADA’s recent price action is not being driven by user growth. Daily active addresses remain flat at around 21,300 as of July 24. This is significantly lower than the 60,000+ daily addresses seen during the 2021 cycle.
The 30-day active address count also sits at 460,000 — well below past peaks. Transaction volume has reached 128 million ADA but has not sustained a strong upward trend. These numbers show that the price surge is not supported by increased network usage or organic adoption.
Cardano’s total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance currently stands at $360 million. That figure is less than half of the $800 million seen in March 2025.
Daily decentralized exchange volumes remain under $6 million, and protocol revenues are stagnant. This gap between token price and DeFi usage raises questions about the rally’s durability, especially when compared to previous bullish periods where ecosystem participation rose in tandem with price.
Open interest on ADA futures has surged past $1.3 billion, marking its highest level in nearly a year. This shows that traders have built significant positions in anticipation of further upside.
Funding rates across major exchanges remain slightly positive, indicating that long positions are dominant. However, this build-up in leverage could lead to forced liquidations if ADA fails to hold above $0.76. The risk of a sharp move downward increases when price drops while open interest remains elevated.
Whale Wallets Are Not in Full Agreement
On-chain data shows that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have started reducing their holdings over the past few weeks, a sign of profit-taking.
Netflow data shows that more ADA is being moved onto exchanges than taken off — a reversal from the previous weeks. When netflows turn positive, it often signals that traders are preparing to sell.
This shift matches the pullback from $0.93 to $0.78 and the breakdown of short-term price support. With whale wallets trimming and exchange balances rising, short-term pressure may continue if buyers fail to defend current support.
