Shiba Inu (SHIB) has dropped 63% since the Trump-led November 2024 rally. Despite the steep correction, one analyst still expects a potential “discharge” — a breakout move — as SHIB nears its long-term buy zone. How much further can SHIB fall before that happens? Let’s analyse.
According to analyst ForexDreamVantage, SHIB price has been consolidating for over ten months inside a tight channel between $0.00001080 and $0.00001760. The analyst defines $0.00001080 as a “strong buy zone” where accumulation may begin, and $0.00001760 as the “trend reversal zone.”
He believes the token could retest this lower band to build momentum before attempting a breakout above $0.00001760 — a move he calls the “discharge.”
Weak On-Chain and Futures Signals Temper Outlook
Recent market data shows waning speculative interest despite the analyst’s bullish outlook. According to Coinglass, Shiba Inu’s futures open interest stood at $191.9 million on October 8, down from around $220 million a week earlier. Open interest tracks the total number of active derivative contracts — a falling figure usually means traders are closing positions, reducing speculation ahead of volatility.
The funding rate stayed slightly positive, showing that long traders are still paying shorts to keep positions open. That suggests mild optimism, but the small rate also means there isn’t enough leverage to fuel a breakout yet.
On the network side, active Shibarium accounts have fallen from nearly 2,000 to below 1,000 since mid-September, while new addresses remain flat. Lower participation often signals fading enthusiasm or fewer transactions, which limits real demand behind any technical bounce.
Together, these metrics show that while speculative pressure has cooled, there isn’t yet strong organic activity to support a major rally.
SHIB Burn Rate Surges But Lacks Consistency
Meanwhile, Shiba Inu’s deflationary effort through token burns continues but remains inconsistent. According to Shibburn, SHIB’s 24-hour burn rate jumped 128 % to 21.4 million tokens. The 7-day burn volume dropped 35 %. Token burns permanently remove SHIB from circulation. Theoretically this reduces supply, but inconsistent activity means the effect on price remains limited.
The token’s total supply still exceeds 589 trillion SHIB, keeping inflationary pressure intact. Sustained burns would need to persist for weeks to materially impact market balance.
Additionally, almost all altcoins and memecoins follow Bitcoin’s direction — and SHIB is no exception. Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $123,000 on Oct. 8, maintaining its structure within a rising parallel channel. Its dominance stands near 59%, slightly lower than the July peak. BTC had a weekly RSI near 63 — indicating moderate strength.
SHIB’s next price move is likely to depend on Bitcoin’s direction; a BTC breakout could help SHIB escape its descending resistance.
Stay with us for continued coverage as market structure, on-chain data, and macro trends determine whether Shiba Inu’s consolidation marks a lasting bottom or just another pause in its decline.
