XRP’s exchange supply has fallen below its price curve for the first time, according to onchain metrics reviewed by market analyst Diana, as more than one billion tokens exited exchange wallets during a three-week window.
1.35B XRP Leaves Exchanges Despite Price Weakness
Glassnode data show that XRP’s exchange balance fell from approximately 3.8 billion tokens at the start of 2025 to roughly 1.6 billion in December, representing a decline of more than 1.35 billion tokens within three weeks. The reduction represents a 45% decline in liquid supply available on public order books.
The supply drop occurred while XRP fell from the $3.40 zone in October to the $2.00–$2.10 range in December. Diana noted that the exchange supply line now sits below XRP’s price curve for the first time in the data she tracks, which she describes as a shift in how tokens move during price weakness.
She said the pattern shows that holders continued to remove tokens even as prices fell, indicating that large buyers may be moving assets into private custody instead of selling into the market.
In that scenario, buyers absorb supply off-exchange, which keeps price action flat even when publicly visible liquidity drops.
The move leaves fewer tokens available for sale on exchanges, which can alter how the market responds when demand increases.
A market with a smaller liquid supply can react more sharply when new bids enter. If order books hold fewer tokens, even moderate net buying can lead to larger swings than usual.
That dynamic has not yet been reflected in XRP’s price action, with the token trading within a narrow range, but it remains a focus for traders watching for the next breakout point.
Triangle Structure Compresses Price Near $2.05
At the same time, XRP trades inside a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. Analyst Ali Martinez posted the structure with the upper trend line near $2.32 and a rising lower trend line from around $1.88. CoinMarketCap data indicates that the price is holding near $2.05–$2.06.
Martinez said that a break of either side of the pattern could lead to an estimated 16% move, based on the height of the formation. He noted that the XRP’s direction depends on where volume enters, because the structure shows a tight balance between rising bids and lower highs.
The combination of lower exchange supply and price compression makes the next breakout decisive for short-term direction. With fewer tokens on exchanges, price moves can accelerate when liquidity returns, while a failure to break limits near $2.32 keeps pressure on support at the $2.00 area.
