Hedera’s HBAR token has struggled since its spot ETF debut, but ETF investors have not abandoned the trade.
HBAR has fallen about 57% since the first US spot Hedera ETF launched on Oct. 29, 2025, dropping from around $0.21 to roughly $0.09 by mid-May. The decline left the token trading below key moving averages, including its 50-day EMA near $0.0915, 100-day EMA near $0.0968, and 200-day EMA near $0.1147.
Yet ETF flows tell a more constructive story. Total HBAR spot ETF net assets stood near $59.25 million, according to SoSoValue data.
More importantly, Hedera ETFs have never recorded a weekly net outflow since launch.
Initial demand was strongest near launch, when daily inflows briefly approached $30 million, before cooling into smaller but still positive flows. That suggests underlying institutional demand remains intact, but not yet strong enough to overpower broader selling pressure.
Hedera Risks 30% Correction
HBAR’s weekly chart still looks structurally weak despite the token’s modest rebound attempt from its falling-channel support.
The price is trading inside a descending channel that has guided the broader downtrend since its early-2025 peak. HBAR recently bounced after testing the channel’s lower boundary, but the move appears weak because it came with declining volume. That suggests dip buyers are present, but conviction remains limited.
The key resistance sits near $0.101, where the 20-week EMA overlaps with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement line. This confluence makes the area important. A rejection from there would show that sellers still control the trend and that HBAR’s bounce is merely a relief move within a broader bearish structure.
The weekly RSI also remains subdued, hovering below the neutral 50 level, which indicates weak momentum. Unless HBAR decisively breaks above the 20-week EMA and reclaims the $0.101–$0.102 zone, the path of least resistance remains tilted lower.
A renewed pullback from this resistance cluster could send HBAR toward $0.057, where the falling channel’s lower support aligns with a multiyear ascending trendline. That level, down 30%, may act as the next major downside target and a potential long-term accumulation zone if ETF demand remains steady.
