NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com)— Bitcoin (BTC)’s price trajectory and market sentiment suggest it could hit $100,000 by the end of 2024. Data from Kalshi and recent market developments reinforce this optimistic outlook.
On-Chain Metrics Support Higher Price Targets
Bitcoin’s price recently touched $99,900 before correcting to $91,000. Despite the dip, valuation models indicate Bitcoin remains in a bull market. CryptoQuant’s P&L Index shows the cryptocurrency is far from entering an overvalued zone. Historical data suggests Bitcoin’s realized price valuation points to a potential top at $146,000, a level that previously capped bull markets in 2021.
Additionally, the Bitcoin (BTC) value held by new investors has not reached speculative levels. Presently, this cohort holds slightly above 50% of the total value invested, compared to 80% and 90% during the 2021 and 2017 market tops, respectively.
Data reveals that retail investors have reduced holdings by 41,000 Bitcoin since Oct., while large investors accumulated 130,000 Bitcoin over the same period.
Bitcoin (BTC) Bull-Bear Cycle Indicators Stay Optimistic
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains firmly in the bull phase and shows no signs of overheating. The current cycle, which began intensifying in early Nov., contrasts with previous cycles that ended during overheated phases. The resilience of this indicator suggests the rally is not near exhaustion.
MicroStrategy’s stock performance, while signaling a potential short-term correction, further highlights the market’s overall bullish outlook. The stock has risen by 113% in Nov., reflecting investor confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
Kalshi Users Place $100K Bets
Event contract market Kalshi, known for its data-driven predictions, reveals that 69% of users are betting BTC will reach $100,000 before Jan. 2025. Notably, 11% of users wagered this milestone could be achieved as early as December.
Kalshi’s unique event-based betting model, often applied to economic outcomes, gained traction this year following its legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The platform’s betting markets, including U.S. presidential elections, provided insights into user sentiment, which now appears to favor Bitcoin’s continued rally.
The convergence of strong on-chain data, institutional interest, and restrained retail speculation positions Bitcoin for a potential breakout above $100,000 in 2024. While short-term corrections remain possible, the broader market dynamics suggest the rally is far from over.
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