Cardano (ADA) has broken above key resistance, triggering bullish projections from analysts. On August 14, technical analyst @CryptoSmith0x shared a chart showing a parabolic setup that points to a 220% rally toward $3.20. The chart showed a multi-month curve with rising lows and a clean breakout above the $0.90 level.
“Momentum’s kicking in, volume confirming. The real move might just be starting,” Smith posted on X after the breakout.
Another analyst, Duo Nine, also shared a chart showing ADA crossing the neckline of a long-term range with increasing volume. Both projections are based entirely on price structure, not fundamentals.
While the technical formation has completed, developer activity on the network has dropped to its lowest point in over a year, raising questions about whether the rally has strong structural support.
ADA Breaks Out as Analysts Forecast Multi-Month Rally to $3.20
Cardano has moved above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages. These averages show the average price over different time periods and are used to confirm market trends. When the price trades above all of them, it typically indicates a shift from consolidation to a trending move.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 71.93. RSI measures how fast the price is moving and whether it may be overbought or oversold. A reading above 70 shows strong buying pressure, but also signals that the price has moved up quickly and may pause in the short term.
Open interest in ADA futures contracts has also increased sharply, showing more market participation. Funding rates, which indicate the cost to hold long or short positions in perpetual futures, remain neutral. This means traders are not heavily biased in either direction.
Developer Activity Drops to Yearly Low During Breakout
Cardano’s active developer count has fallen to 46, the lowest level recorded in more than a year, according to Santiment data. Developer activity includes contributions to core protocol upgrades, feature development, and smart contract infrastructure.
Daily active addresses on the Cardano network have not increased during the recent breakout. These addresses represent unique wallets interacting with the blockchain each day. Similarly, transaction volume — the total value transferred on-chain — remains low compared to the 2021 rally.
Cardano’s total value locked (TVL) across DeFi platforms remains below $250 million, with no major growth in applications like Minswap or Indigo. As there has been no noticeable increase in user activity alongside the ADA price move, there is significant room for doubt about whether analysts’ projected rally has strong structural support.
