A trader posting under the X handle DusXBT said Solana’s (SOL) ascending-triangle formation is approaching resolution, with a confirmed breakout projected to extend the token’s price toward $400.
DusXBT explained that Solana must first record a daily or weekly close above $210 and then hold the level on a retest. He said those conditions would validate the triangle and open the way to higher targets. Without them, the pattern remains incomplete and exposed to failure.
SOL Breakout Needs to Close Above $210 With Volume
SOL/USD price chart shows Solana forming higher lows under a flat ceiling — the classic structure of an ascending triangle. The token trades above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are trend lines that smooth past prices. Trading above these averages signals that the broader uptrend is intact.
Momentum is neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold on a 0–100 scale, sits in the mid-50s. Levels above 70 mark overheated conditions, while below 30 suggest oversold levels. A mid-50 reading leaves room for further upside.
Despite this constructive setup, Solana has not yet posted a daily or weekly close above $210, and trading volume has remained muted. DusXBT said a breakout requires both a convincing close and higher-than-average turnover.
Derivatives Show Rising OI, Balanced Positioning
Futures data show open interest, or the number of active contracts, rising with price. Funding rates, the periodic fees between long and short traders, are slightly positive. That signals more long positions but not at costly levels that often indicate crowding. Liquidation data show forced closures on both long and short positions, suggesting balanced positioning as price approaches resistance.
Relative performance is mixed. The SOL/BTC pair trades above long-term averages, showing outperformance versus Bitcoin. The SOL/ETH pair remains below its moving averages, signaling weakness against Ether.
Overall, on-chain usage remains strong. Total value locked (TVL) on Solana stands at about $11.4 billion, while stablecoin supply is $12.8 billion. Decentralized exchange (DEX) volume exceeds $2.6 billion in 24 hours, with active addresses above 2 million. About 408 million SOL are staked, reducing the supply available for trading.
DusXBT said a confirmed breakout would bring $250 into focus, where supply and liquidation clusters are concentrated. Clearing that level could extend gains toward $260–$280, in line with prior peaks. With sustained momentum and liquidity, he projected Solana could reach $400 in the midterm.
Moreover, failure to close above $210, or a breakdown below the rising trendline that defines the triangle, would risk a decline back to the $180–$170 support zone.
