Bitcoin has reached a dominance level of 65%, the highest it has seen since early 2021. This means Bitcoin now holds 65% of the total value in the crypto market. While this shows strong support for Bitcoin, analysts believe this trend might soon reverse. If that happens, it could trigger what many in the industry call an altcoin season — a period when altcoins grow faster than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Leads, But Dominance May Peak Soon
Bitcoin is currently trading around $93,500 and has shown strong support above this price. Key resistance levels to watch is between $97,000 and $98,000. The surge in Bitcoin’s price has also increased its dominance in the market. When Bitcoin dominance rises, it usually means investors are moving their money into Bitcoin instead of altcoins.
However, some analysts believe this rise may be nearing its end. One of them, Rekt Capital, said Bitcoin is in the final stage of its long-term dominance trend. He expects it to peak around 71%, based on past cycles. After reaching such levels, Bitcoin usually gives up some of its market share, and capital flows into altcoins.
This view is not shared by all. Others argue that this cycle may be different. That’s because large institutions like BlackRock and Michael Saylor’s Strategy are buying and holding Bitcoin through ETFs. Since they don’t switch funds into altcoins, this could delay the rotation.
While Bitcoin continues to lead, the altcoin market is showing signs of a breakout. A technical pattern known as a cup-and-handle has formed on the bi-weekly chart of the total altcoin market. This pattern usually signals a strong upward move. According to analyst Gert Van Lagen, this pattern will be confirmed if the total altcoin market cap breaks above $813.18 billion. If that happens, he predicts the market could rise to around $5.4 trillion before 2026. That would mean a 564% increase from today’s levels.
What Could Trigger the Altcoin Season?
Several factors need to line up before altcoin season begins. First of all, the delay in altcoin growth is due to limited liquidity. Additionally, heavy token unlocks and the memecoin boom are some of the reasons for the slowdown.
Additionally, multiple altcoin ETFs are expected to be approved in the second half of 2025. These would allow more institutional investors to buy altcoins, just as Bitcoin ETFs did for BTC in 2024. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in June, ending a long period of tight financial policy. Lower interest rates could create a risk-on environment where investors look for higher returns in altcoins. Lastly, regulatory clarity will let traditional banks enter the crypto market, bringing more money into altcoins.
At present, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 21, far below the 75 level that usually signals a true altseason.
The total crypto market cap has risen above $2.5 trillion, but altcoins still only make up 36.1% of it.
