NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin continues to track gold’s bullish momentum, with its correlation to traditional safe-haven assets growing stronger amid a collapsing U.S. equity market. A sharp decline in the U.S. stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio and escalating trade tensions have reinforced the digital asset’s narrative as a macro hedge.
The Bitcoin-to-gold cross currently trades at 25.6, a level that historically triggered major volatility in crypto markets. Since 2020, the ratio has fluctuated between 16 and 37, indicating a key inflection zone. Traders now monitor this metric as a signal for either continuation or reversal of Bitcoin’s recent strength.
Source: Mike McGlone/X
According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone, U.S. stocks have shed $13 trillion in market value from their peak, pushing the market cap-to-GDP ratio below 1.85. This shift reflects the increasing divergence between traditional risk assets and alternative stores of value. Bitcoin and gold have both outperformed equities during this downturn, solidifying their appeal during periods of macro instability.
China Buys Gold, Bitcoin Holds Above $87K
China’s central bank added five tonnes of gold to its reserves in March, marking its fifth consecutive month of accumulation. This brings the country’s official gold holdings to 2,292 tonnes, accounting for 6.5% of its total reserves. The move signals a broader pivot away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets amid growing skepticism over U.S. policy stability.
China Adds 50 Tonnes of Gold in Feb. Source: Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter confirmed the trend, suggesting China seeks asset protection from increasing geopolitical and fiscal risks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin maintained its position above $87,000 despite a $5 billion outflow from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, showcasing resilience.
Bitcoin’s stability comes as the digital-asset market cap rose 3% to $2.75 trillion. BTC briefly touched $88,527 before retreating to $87,200. Analysts on social media expect the current bullish consolidation to continue if macro conditions remain tense.
Gold Hits Record as Safe Haven Demand Surges
Gold surged past $3,400 per ounce on Apr. 21, hitting a new all-time high. The metal’s rise reflects broad market fear triggered by ongoing U.S.-China trade hostilities and dollar depreciation. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell to a three-year low of 97.92, prompting a rush into non-dollar stores of value.
The four major U.S. equity indexes on Monday, April 21, 2025, at 1 p.m. Eastern time.
With the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.40% and equity markets posting back-to-back losses, the appeal of safe-haven assets has grown. Gold’s rapid ascent underscores the shift in investor priorities, while Bitcoin’s relative calm hints at broader institutional positioning.
Whale Activity Signals Confidence
Glassnode data shows a sharp increase in Bitcoin whale wallets. More than 60 new addresses holding over 1,000 BTC appeared since early March, lifting the total above 2,100. This marks the highest concentration of large wallets in four months, suggesting growing interest from high-net-worth investors.
Bitcoin whale addresses surge amid price stability. Source: Glassnode
The divergence between ETF flows and whale accumulation raises questions about institutional sentiment. While ETF products saw capital outflows, direct accumulation suggests long-term conviction among market participants. The dynamic supports a scenario where Bitcoin continues to follow gold as a hedge against systemic uncertainty.
BTC-Gold Link Grows Amid Policy Doubts
Traders now interpret the Bitcoin/gold ratio as a barometer for macro risk. As both assets hold firm against mounting geopolitical and fiscal threats, their performance mirrors investors’ retreat from stocks and bonds.
Michael van de Poppe noted both BTC and gold performed well over the weekend but cautioned against short-term euphoria. “Probably it will give it back,” he said on X, hinting at possible corrections ahead. Still, many see the digital-gold thesis gaining momentum as global confidence in U.S. monetary leadership continues to erode.
Bitcoin’s gravity remains tethered to gold’s trajectory. As the dollar weakens and yields rise, the crypto market could find its next catalyst in a renewed surge of flight-to-safety demand.
