Investment firm ARK Invest has raised its long-term Bitcoin price target, predicting the cryptocurrency could reach $2.4 million by 2030 in its most optimistic scenario. In a report published on April 24, ARK raised its bear case to $500,000 (up from $300,000) and base case to $1.2 million (up from $710,000).
These predictions are based on Bitcoin’s potential share of the global financial market, its adoption as “digital gold,” and usage in developing economies.
Institutional Adoption Is the Main Growth Driver
According to ARK’s analysis, institutional investment is the largest contributor to the bullish scenario.
The report estimates that if Bitcoin captures 6.5% of the $200 trillion global financial market, it could account for more than 43% of Bitcoin’s projected value under the bull case. ARK’s model excludes gold from that financial market estimate and considers it separately as another source of value for BTC.
ARK also discussed Bitcoin’s increasing role as a store of value. In the bullish scenario, the report predicts Bitcoin could capture up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap by 2030. This would make BTC a strong alternative to traditional gold holdings.
ARK assigns about 13.5% of the $2.4 million bull case to Bitcoin adoption in emerging markets. In countries with high inflation or unstable currencies, Bitcoin is being used to protect wealth.
The report also includes on-chain financial services, like Layer 2 networks and tokenized Bitcoin, as a smaller but potentially fast-growing contributor to price growth. ARK projects that this segment could grow annually from 20% to 60%, depending on market conditions.
Bitcoin Exchange Supply Shrinks As Public Companies Are Accumulating
The updated forecast comes as BTC trades around $94,000, recovering from a recent low of $75,000. At the same time, Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to the lowest level since November 2018.
Fidelity Digital Assets reports that more than 425,000 BTC have moved off exchanges since November. This trend is often seen as a sign of long-term holding rather than short-term trading.
Most of the Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges has been bought by public companies. According to Fidelity, firms have acquired about 350,000 BTC since November 2024. One company, Strategy, founded by Michael Saylor, has purchased 285,980 BTC, accounting for 81% of that total.
Outside the U.S., companies like Metaplanet in Japan and HK Asia Holdings in Hong Kong are also increasing their BTC holdings. Metaplanet now holds 5,000 BTC, and its CEO plans to double that amount this year. HK Asia Holdings has announced plans to raise $8.35 million for possible Bitcoin purchases.
