More than 80% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist is now in the hands of long-term holders. This marks one of the highest levels of HODLing in Bitcoin’s 15-year history, according to on-chain data shared by Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Past Peaks Show Strong Reactions
The chart highlights only two other periods when long-term holder supply climbed this high. The first occurred in late 2023 when Bitcoin hovered around $43,000. In the following weeks, BTC surged over $30,000 to reach $73,000. The second instance was in early 2024 when Bitcoin traded at $58,000. After long-term holders absorbed more supply, the price rocketed toward $106,000.
Each time, long-term holder accumulation removed excess supply from the market. When new demand entered, there was little resistance—causing rapid price increases.
This trend is now repeating. The long-term holder supply has crossed 16 million BTC—just below its all-time high. Meanwhile, the circulating supply remains capped near 19.7 million. This means over 80% of the total Bitcoin supply is not moving.
When coins sit still, liquidity shrinks. That setup often leads to sharp price movements when buyers return. Historically, long-term holder dominance has preceded major Bitcoin breakouts.
Corporate Treasuries Are Back in Accumulation Mode
This time, companies are also playing a larger role. Firms like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are increasing their Bitcoin reserves, removing thousands of coins from the market. These purchases accelerate the supply squeeze, making it harder for retail or institutional investors to enter without pushing prices higher.
The chart includes blue circles that match periods of high long-term holder supply and subsequent price breakouts. In both prior instances, the BTC price added $30,000 to $50,000 shortly after hitting this threshold.
If history repeats, Bitcoin could see another breakout. Given the current baseline near $105,000, a $50,000+ move could push the price beyond $150,000. Whether this happens in weeks or months remains unclear, but the structure now mirrors past breakout conditions.
Bitcoin RSI Turns Bullish as Buying Pressure Builds
Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of renewed strength. On July 8, the 14-day RSI climbed to 55.43, while its moving average stood at 52.56. This crossover indicates that short-term momentum has shifted in favor of buyers. When RSI moves above its average, it often reflects increasing demand and early bullish sentiment.
Over the past few weeks, the RSI stayed in a wide range between 45 and 65. It dropped below 35 twice but quickly bounced back, showing that sellers failed to hold control. At the same time, all attempts to break above 65 faced rejection. This back-and-forth action signaled indecision.
Now, the picture looks different. The RSI has moved higher and crossed its signal line, suggesting buyers are stepping in again. If the RSI continues to rise and breaks above 60, it could confirm stronger momentum. Until then, Bitcoin’s trend remains neutral, but momentum is clearly building in the bullish direction.
