Bitcoin (BTC) just ended its worst quarter in six years, with prices falling 12% from January to March. While bulls point to renewed inflows and technical patterns, key macro indicators suggest the path ahead remains uncertain.
Bitcoin Ends Q1 With Heavy Losses as Gold Ratio Flashes Red
According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin declined 12% in Q1 2025. That marked the asset’s worst quarterly performance since Q4 2018. The slump followed a 55% rally in Q4 2024, largely driven by U.S. spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals and inflows.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone pointed to a potential macro reset. In a Mar. 22 post, he warned that the BTC/gold ratio could mark a historic peak. “History may judge 2024’s 40x peak in the ratio akin to 1929 or 1999,” he wrote, adding that current valuations present elevated reversion risks across markets.
McGlone also flagged the U.S. stock market-cap-to-GDP ratio, which reached 2.2x—levels previously seen before major market downturns.
Institutional Inflows Return After Five-Week Selloff
Digital asset investment products reversed a five-week outflow streak last week, recording $644 million in inflows. Bitcoin led the rebound with $724 million entering the asset, according to data shared by CoinShares.
Every day last week saw net inflows, a stark contrast to the 17-day stretch of redemptions that preceded it. U.S.-based products accounted for $632 million of the total, while Switzerland, Germany, and Hong Kong also saw smaller inflows.
Short-Bitcoin funds, which profit when BTC falls, saw outflows of $7.1 million—marking a third consecutive week of withdrawals. That suggests institutional traders are trimming bearish bets, possibly preparing for a rebound.
However, sentiment in the altcoin space remained mixed. Ethereum (ETH) recorded $86 million in outflows. Solana (SOL) saw inflows of $6.4 million, while Polygon (MATIC) and Chainlink (LINK) logged modest gains.
BTC Technical Structure Hints at Breakout—But Warnings Persist
Technical analysts remain split on where BTC is headed next. Trader CryptoFaibik claimed Bitcoin is still within a falling wedge pattern, hinting at a potential breakout. He expects a rally to $109,000 once the breakout confirms.
But not everyone shares that view. Ali Martinez, known for his use of TD Sequential indicators, warned of a possible local top. “The TD Sequential suggests BTC may be approaching a short-term top,” he posted on Mar. 23.
Altcoin Sherpa also expressed caution. He expects Bitcoin to test $89,000–$90,000, calling that a key level. “After that, BTC can either return to the range or revisit the lows at $75,000,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, Mister Crypto pointed to a CME gap at $84,000 that could act as a magnet for price in the short term.
Historical Parallels and Market Psychology in Focus
Bitcoin’s 12% drop in Q1 is part of a longer pattern of post-halving retracements and ETF-driven volatility. Past cycles have also seen sharp pullbacks before longer-term uptrends resume.
However, the macro backdrop remains a major variable. As McGlone noted, the similarities between today’s asset valuations and past bubble eras may weigh on crypto’s trajectory.
