The BTC/USD pair has entered a technically vulnerable position as Bitcoin’s price faces heightened downside pressure. After a prolonged rally that saw it peak at $109,150, Bitcoin has reversed sharply amid global macroeconomic tensions, notably the escalating U.S.-China trade war.
On Monday, the BTC/USD pair dropped to $74,430, its lowest level since November 10, 2024, representing a 32% decline from this year’s highs. The looming threat is now a break below $73,800, a critical support that could unleash further bearish momentum. Monovex offers expert commentary and detailed insights on this topic in the article.
Trade War Tensions Drive Risk-Off Sentiment
Investor confidence remains fragile due to mounting trade war concerns. This week, the US President reignited fears by proposing a 50% tariff on all Chinese imports, should Beijing maintain its current 34% tariff on US goods. These developments have sent shockwaves through global markets, eroding risk appetite and leading to sharp declines in equities and cryptocurrencies alike.
The prospect of a prolonged trade war raises fears of a global recession, a sentiment echoed by leading financial institutions. Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 45%, while JPMorgan projects a 60% likelihood. Similarly, analysts at Citigroup and PIMCO have also issued warnings, citing tightening credit conditions and geopolitical instability as primary risks.
Paradoxically, while a recession could hurt broader risk markets, it may offer medium-term support for Bitcoin. In a recessionary environment, central banks–particularly the Federal Reserve–are likely to implement aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy.
Market Catalysts: Trade and Monetary Policy in Focus
Near-term price action in BTC/USD will remain highly sensitive to developments in trade negotiations and monetary policy. The US President’s remarks about ongoing discussions with Japan and Vietnam suggest that backchannel diplomacy is underway. Any signs of de-escalation could temporarily lift risk sentiment and provide a relief rally in Bitcoin.
Additionally, the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be closely monitored. These minutes should offer deeper insight into the Federal Reserve’s policy stance during its last meeting. Any hints of a more dovish tilt–such as concerns about employment or inflation undershooting–could fuel speculation about upcoming rate cuts, thereby influencing BTC/USD dynamics.
Technical Outlook: All Eyes on $73,800
From a technical analysis perspective, the BTC/USD pair has flashed multiple bearish signals. The pair formed a double-top pattern at $109,150, with the neckline at $88,892. This classic reversal formation was confirmed when the price broke below the neckline, and a break-and-retest pattern emerged as the pair revisited this level before resuming its descent.
A more ominous sign is the impending death cross, where the 50-day EMA is set to cross below the 200-day EMA. Historically, this crossover has preceded extended bear phases in Bitcoin markets. BTC/USD has also dropped below a key support level at $76,600, which acted as the lowest swing on March 11, 2025.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is trending lower, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 40, signaling persistent bearish momentum. Volume has also spiked on down days, suggesting stronger conviction among sellers.
The last major line of defense lies at $73,813, the March swing high. A confirmed breakdown below this level would validate the bearish structure, opening the door for a drop to $70,000, a psychological and technical support. This zone also aligns with previous consolidation areas, which could act as interim demand.
However, a move above the 50-day EMA at $86,500 would invalidate the bearish thesis and may encourage a re-test of $88,892, the prior neckline. Bulls will need a sustained break above this zone to regain control of the broader trend.
Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for BTC/USD
The BTC/USD pair is navigating one of its most crucial technical and macroeconomic tests in recent months. The interplay between escalating trade tensions, rising recession risks, and potential Federal Reserve interventions creates a volatile backdrop for crypto traders. While a recession-driven dovish Fed could ultimately be bullish for Bitcoin, short-term headwinds remain dominant.
As such, $73,800 is the level to watch. A decisive break below this area would likely accelerate the sell-off, while a rebound and close above $86,500 would shift market sentiment in favor of bulls. Traders should remain vigilant and monitor macro news flow alongside technical setups to navigate this high-risk environment.
For now, the bias remains bearish, with the path of least resistance leading lower–unless key support zones manage to hold.
COMTEX_465025517/2922/2025-04-29T03:43:36
