Cardano (ADA) has fallen 40% since its Trump-led rally in November 2024, while Ether (ETH) and XRP (XRP) are up 27% and 29% in the same period. Even with that gap, analysts say ADA may be close to a breakout. One expects a 50% rally if the token clears resistance.
So, is it really going to happen — if yes, when? Let’s analyse.
After a Year of Consolidation, Analyst Puts $1.20 in Focus
Analyst CryptoYoddha says Cardano has spent nearly a year building strength inside a wide trading range. He believes the long pause has allowed buyers to slowly regain control. If ADA climbs above $0.90, Yoddha expects it to reach $1.20, which would be about 50% higher than today’s price.
He describes this phase as “a coiling move” that could end with a strong breakout. But that will only happen, he adds, if trading volume rises once the price crosses $0.90 — a level that has stopped every advance so far this year.
Another analyst, “Ssebi,” has a more cautious view. He says ADA is still trading inside a symmetrical triangle, where each bounce is smaller than the last. According to him, the token could slip toward $0.78 — around 7% lower — before any real rebound.
He notes that every failed push above $0.90 shows hesitation among buyers.
Supporting Ssebi’s view, Cardano’s fundamentals still trail its main competitors. At the Token 2049 event, Charles Hoskinson admitted that the network “misstepped on the DeFi side” and that Cardano’s TVL remains low, under $1 billion. He said the ecosystem is improving, but acknowledged that stablecoin adoption has been slow.
On-chain data from Santiment confirms the same weakness. The number of active addresses has dropped by more than 60% since December 2024, while transaction volume now averages below $1 billion per day.
Open interest has stayed flat despite brief price rallies, showing that traders haven’t started placing big directional bets yet.
Cardano Holding Steady — But For How Long?
At the press time, Cardano’s price chart shows the token moving between $0.75 and $0.90 since early September. The pattern is holding, and every breakout attempt has stopped at the same upper boundary.
Both analysts are watching that zone. Yoddha sees it as a launchpad, while Ssebi views it as a ceiling that may give way only after another pullback.
Market momentum remains quiet. The relative strength index (RSI) is around 48, showing that buyers and sellers are evenly matched. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are flat, which means traders are still waiting for direction.
A close above $0.90 with higher trading activity would strengthen the case for a move toward $1.00–$1.20, matching Yoddha’s view. A drop under $0.78 would lend weight to Ssebi’s forecast of another small correction before recovery.
