Crypto markets are approaching a decisive moment. Many traders are asking whether the upcoming year could bring an altseason strong enough to create a new batch of millionaires. Altseason refers to the period when altcoins—cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin—outperform Bitcoin in price growth and market share. When examining historical cycles, adoption trends, on‑chain data, and macro conditions, certain signs indicate that the foundations for such a rally are forming.
Bitcoin typically leads every market cycle. Its share of the overall crypto market, known as Bitcoin dominance, rises first as investors move into the most established coin. When that dominance peaks and begins to decline, capital often flows into altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, or XRP. Concurrently, the combined market capitalization of altcoins, tracked by the TOTAL2 index, starts to climb. Together, a drop in Bitcoin dominance and a rise in TOTAL2 mark the beginning of an altseason.
Halving History Points to Altseason Window in 2025
There have been only two clear global altseasons. The first began in March 2017, eight months after the 2016 Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin dominance fell from 96% to 36% in under a year. During this 310‑day period, the TOTAL2 index grew by more than 500 times to $470 billion.
The second came after the May 2020 Bitcoin halving. Over 309 days, the TOTAL2 index rose from $225 billion to nearly $1.5 trillion, peaking in November 2021. Both events closely followed halvings. These are the moments when the reward for mining Bitcoin was cut in half, reducing new supply. These circumstances historically feuled broader rallies.
After the most recent Bitcoin halving in April 2024, the market now finds itself in the same post‑halving window that gave rise to previous altseasons.
TradingView data shows Bitcoin dominance near 61.6%, down slightly from its 2025 peak of about 63%.
Historical Altseason Patterns
In past cycles, altseasons began once dominance rolled over from such peaks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dominance is near 41, suggesting weakening momentum. The RSI is a measure of market strength, where levels above 70 often signal overbought conditions and below 30 signal oversold. If dominance continues to fall below 60%, it could confirm that altcoins are starting to take larger market share.
While Bitcoin holds most of the attention, altcoins are showing steady strength. The TOTAL2 index is valued around $1.42 trillion. This is still below the record set in 2021 but comfortably above the $1.3 trillion support zone.
The RSI for TOTAL2 is near 53, showing balanced momentum and leaving room for further upside. The index has been trending upward since early 2023, suggesting altcoins are building a foundation for growth. The steady upward trend since early 2023 suggests that altcoins are building a base for a potential breakout.
Crypto Adoption Surges Past 900 Million Users Worldwide
Rapid crypto adoption continues to support the technical signals. Statista estimates that nearly 900 million people worldwide owned cryptocurrency by mid‑2025, a 33% increase from 2023. This adoption pace is faster than the early growth of the internet in the late 1990s. In the United States, one in five adults now own digital assets, with most reporting that crypto has had a positive impact on their lives.
On‑chain activity supports these figures. The number of Ethereum wallets accumulating without selling has reached all‑time highs. Bitcoin long‑term holders are selling less, reducing supply pressure. At the same time, institutional demand is rising, with large investors using private over‑the‑counter desks instead of public exchanges. Together, these trends point to rising confidence among both retail and institutional investors.
Despite encouraging signals, the timing of altseason depends heavily on global economic conditions. High interest rates have left many investors with little spare capital for riskier assets like crypto. Without this liquidity, the market cannot expand at the same pace as it has in previous cycles.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut in September 2025 could change that. Analysts estimate an 80% chance of a 25‑basis‑point reduction. Lower borrowing costs would increase liquidity and allow more capital to flow into crypto markets. If this occurs, it could act as the external trigger that launches the next altseason.
Can This Cycle Create Millionaires?
The evidence points toward a high probability of an upcoming altseason. Past cycles show how powerful these phases can be. The 2017 rally increased the altcoin market more than 500‑fold, while the 2020–2021 cycle expanded it six times. With post‑halving conditions in place, Bitcoin dominance near a peak, strong TOTAL2 support, and adoption at record levels, another major rally looks possible.
However, risks remain. If central banks delay interest‑rate cuts, liquidity could remain tight. Inflation or a slowdown in major economies could also limit investment into crypto. Regulatory actions remain another variable, as tighter rules could reduce access to exchanges and dampen participation. Altseasons also carry heavy volatility. Prices can rise rapidly but fall just as fast when profit‑taking begins.
