Analyst Ali Martinez compared Cardano’s (ADA) current chart to its 2021 breakout, arguing that the token may be entering the early stages of a bull run. In 2021, ADA surged from under $1 to an all-time high of $3.10 within months. Martinez said today’s consolidation resembles that pattern, suggesting ADA could attempt a similar rally if it holds above critical support.
At press time, ADA price stands near $0.87, moving inside an upward channel with support close to $0.83–$0.84. Martinez explained that this setup mirrors ADA’s pre-rally consolidation in 2021, when the token struggled to hold above $1 before its breakout.
Trader Joe Swanson focused on ADA’s breakout from a recent consolidation triangle. He said the $0.88–$0.90 range is now an important support. “Hold that and $1+ looks on deck. Lose it and we’re probably revisiting $0.75–$0.70,” he noted. Swanson’s view ties directly to ADA’s TradingView chart, which shows that failure to defend this level could send the price back toward the long-term moving averages.
Another analyst, Sssebi, pointed to $0.83–$0.84 as a reliable support zone, which aligns with the lower edge of ADA’s ascending channel. He cautioned that volatility could increase this week because of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. A rate cut could boost liquidity and help ADA hold above support, while a hawkish stance could pressure prices.
Technical Indicators Show Neutral But Supportive Setup
Cardano’s technical structure supports the traders’ focus on key levels. ADA is trading above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), showing buyers remain in control.
Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 51, a neutral reading. For beginners, RSI measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold. A value near 50 means the market is balanced, neither overheated nor under strong selling pressure. In 2021, ADA’s RSI also hovered near neutral before the rally began.
Charts also show ADA moving inside an upward channel. The lower boundary sits near $0.83, which matches Sssebi’s support level, while resistance lies near $1.00–$1.10. A breakout above $1 could confirm bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $0.83 risks a slide back to $0.75–$0.70.
Additionally, On-chain data from Santiment indicates that large ADA holders, or whales, have been increasing their balances. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA accumulated steadily in recent months, a trend similar to the buildup seen before ADA’s 2021 rally.
But retail participation remains limited. Cardano’s daily active addresses stand at about 27,000, well below the 100,000+ seen at the height of the last bull cycle. DeFi activity is also modest, with $374 million in total value locked (TVL) and just $5.4 million in daily decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, according to DeFiLlama. Cardano-based stablecoins have a combined market cap of about $39 million, limiting liquidity compared to Ethereum or Solana.
ETF Filing and Fed Policy Could Decide ADA’s Direction
Bitcoin’s performance supports ADA’s bullish case. BTC is trading above $115,000 in a long-term ascending channel with its RSI near 56, a level similar to past altcoin rally setups. Historically, ADA has followed Bitcoin’s strength during major cycles.
Macro conditions, however, are less favorable than in 2021. Interest rates remain high, though the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently said the U.S. Federal Reserve has room to cut rates if the economy slows. A rate cut would improve liquidity, creating a more favorable backdrop for risk assets.
Institutional adoption could also be a turning point. Grayscale filed for a Cardano ETF with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with a decision expected by October 2025. If approved, it would provide a regulated entry point for institutional investors, potentially unlocking new capital flows into ADA.
