Polymarket traders now price Cardano’s (ADA) chance of securing a spot exchange-traded fund at 84% by December 2025. This is a sharp rise from under 10% at the start of 2024. Open bets on the platform now total more than $500,000, showing that some traders expect ADA to follow Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) into regulated ETF markets.
KraneShares Adds Cardano to Its New Index Fund
KraneShares, a U.S. asset manager with multiple crypto-linked ETFs, filed for its second index crypto fund in June. The proposed basket includes Cardano, Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and other large-cap coins.
The new filing comes at a time when other altcoin and basket crypto ETFs remain under SEC review. Also, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and cleared Ethereum ETFs in July 2024. Since then, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $40 billion in net inflows, according to Farside Investors’ flow tracker. Spot Ethereum ETFs have also drawn over $6 billion in total inflows since approval.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has described this trend as an “Altcoin ETF Summer.” He notes that Solana and Cardano stand out as the next coins likely to appear in regulated index products if the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expands its approvals. Polymarket odds for a Solana spot ETF sit near 77%, slightly below Cardano’s 84%.
Traders and Analysts Point to $3 — But Can ADA Get There?
Some Cardano supporters and analysts see an ETF approval as a trigger that could push ADA back near $3, a level last reached in September 2021 during the last crypto bull cycle. This price target assumes that new demand could mirror the fresh capital flows that followed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches.
However, the current chart does not yet show a clear breakout. ADA trades near $0.56, down about 4% over the past week. The daily chart shows the ADA price stuck inside a downward channel that has capped every bounce since January.
The Relative Strength Index sits around 37, which points to weak momentum. Daily trading volume remains steady near $210 million, but has not yet increased enough to show new accumulation. For ADA to escape its channel, traders watch for a move above $0.70. A clear push beyond that level could open the door for higher targets.
If buyers do not step in, ADA could revisit support near $0.40 in the coming months. From its current level, reaching $3 would mean a 400% gain, which would likely require more than just an ETF launch — it would need stronger market sentiment and clear growth on Cardano’s network.
Approval Alone May Not Drive Demand
Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted strong inflows because both networks have deep liquidity and active ecosystems. Cardano’s usage remains smaller by comparison. Its total value locked (TVL) in DeFi sits near $245 million, while Ethereum’s TVL is around $63 billion— over 300 times larger. Developer contributions have also slowed since the 2021 peak.
Without higher staking demand, more active apps, or a bigger user base, institutions may hesitate to add ADA in large amounts — even if a fund launches.
Some traders hope Cardano’s ETF could mirror the net inflows that pushed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to record demand. But there is no guarantee ADA will repeat that trend. Bitcoin’s deep liquidity and Ethereum’s large DeFi ecosystem built trust with funds. Cardano’s smaller DeFi size and open regulatory questions could limit how much capital flows through a Cardano ETF, even if approved.
