A crypto analyst has predicted that Cardano (ADA) could rally to $1.50 after breaking out of a long-term downtrend. The forecast follows ADA’s recent breakout above key resistance levels, which the analyst describes as a textbook bullish setup. However, on-chain activity shows signs of weakness, raising questions about whether the rally can sustain beyond $1.
Crypto analysts Profit Blue and JireonTTP expect ADA to push beyond $1 and target the $1.25–$1.50 range. Their forecast is based on a confirmed breakout from a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart — a structure often associated with bullish reversals.
Profit Blue noted that ADA’s price action near $0.68–$0.72 showed signs of accumulation, setting the stage for a strong upward move. ADA is now trading near $0.80, and the analyst expects the breakout to extend toward the $1.50 level — implying a 90% rally from June lows.
Technical Indicators Support the Breakout
ADA’s technical setup confirms the bullish thesis. The MACD shows a positive crossover, indicating strong upward momentum. ADA also trades above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, suggesting solid support at lower levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 77.8, which indicates overbought conditions. While this shows momentum is strong, it also raises the risk of a short-term pullback or consolidation before another leg up.
Fibonacci retracement levels show ADA has cleared the 0.382 level. The next resistance lies near $0.96 and $1.10 — both key zones before the analyst’s upper target range of $1.25–$1.50.
Exchange Netflows and Whale Activity Point to Accumulation
On-chain data supports the technical setup to some extent. Exchange netflows for ADA remain negative, meaning more tokens are leaving centralized exchanges than entering. This often signals accumulation and reduced sell-side pressure.
Whale wallet data also shows a sharp rise in holdings among addresses with 10M–1B ADA. These wallets have increased their balances since June, coinciding with ADA’s breakout region between $0.68 and $0.72. Large holders accumulating during consolidation strengthens the case for upward continuation.
Despite price strength, ADA’s network usage has weakened significantly. Daily active addresses are down to 17.4K, while 7-day and 30-day active address averages sit at 164K and 424K, respectively. During ADA’s 2021 bull run, daily actives routinely exceeded 150K — nearly 8 times higher than current levels.
Transaction volume has also declined sharply. Daily volume dropped from over 100 billion ADA in mid-2024 to less than 6 billion in July 2025. This shows that the current price move is not backed by increased utility or user demand.
Cardano Developer Activity Hits 18-Month Low
Development activity on Cardano has also dropped. GitHub data shows declining contributions and active developers — now at their lowest point in over a year and a half.
In past market cycles, ADA’s long-term rallies were accompanied by rising development metrics. Without renewed builder engagement, investor confidence in the $1.50 forecast could weaken over time.
Sentiment around a potential Cardano ETF is also influencing short-term price expectations. Prediction market Polymarket shows over 80% odds that a Cardano ETF could be approved in 2025. While no official filing has been confirmed, this kind of speculative momentum has historically fueled temporary price surges.
However, analysts warn that ETF-related gains are difficult to sustain without support from fundamentals like user activity and protocol development.
The analysts’ forecast of a rally to $1.50 is backed by ADA’s breakout above trendline resistance, positive MACD, and whale accumulation. Short-term price action suggests a move toward $1 is possible and technically justified.
But weak on-chain activity — including low active addresses, falling transaction volume, and declining development — casts doubt on ADA’s ability to sustain a move beyond $1.10. Unless utility metrics recover, the rally could stall below the analysts’ target.
ADA’s current move is structurally bullish, but for the $1.50 forecast to become realistic, network usage and development must begin rising alongside price.
