Some analysts tracking Dogecoin (DOGE) believe the memecoin could repeat a historic breakout if it clears a falling wedge that has shaped its market for about 200 days. Dogecoin’s current wedge looks similar to the 2021 setup when the price rose from below one cent to above seventy cents. The same post states that if the wedge breaks with enough volume, Dogecoin could rally by 400% from its current level.
At press time, Dogecoin trades near $0.17–$0.18, holding slightly above the double-bottom support visible on the daily chart. The falling wedge has now touched its upper trendline six times since late 2023.
Wedge and Double Bottom Hold Short-Term Dogecoin Support
On the 1-day chart, Dogecoin keeps support near $0.15–$0.17, forming a double bottom that traders often read as a sign of a possible reversal if volume expands. The immediate resistance sits at the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, which align near $0.19–$0.20. If the price closes above these averages on a daily candle, the next test could stretch toward $0.26, which acted as a ceiling during past attempts.
The relative strength index sits near 44.7, which shows momentum remains below neutral. For buyers to regain control, RSI would need to rise above 50 with stronger daily closes.
DOGE On-Chain Data is Weak
While the wedge shape supports the analyst’s view, onchain signals remain weak at this stage. Whale transaction data shows that transfers above $100,000 stand at 58, with only 7 transactions above $1 million. During Dogecoin’s strongest breakout in 2021, large whale flows often crossed 700 daily.
Social metrics also remain flat. Santiment’s Social Volume and Dominance charts show that Dogecoin chatter sits near multimonth lows. In 2021, Dogecoin’s largest moves aligned with frequent posts by Elon Musk and viral social campaigns that drew in new retail buyers each week.
Developer activity is also quiet. The same onchain feeds show that Dogecoin’s code commits and active contributor counts have stayed minimal for months.
Dogecoin’s 2021 Rally Was More Than a Chart
Dogecoin’s last major breakout did not depend on the wedge alone.
Between January and May 2021, the DOGE price climbed from under $0.01 to around $0.73. Elon Musk posted constant tweets during that period, including the “Dogefather” reference before he appeared on Saturday Night Live. His messages brought waves of retail traders. Viral Reddit and TikTok trends during the same time added millions of first-time buyers to the coin.
Additionally, major exchanges such as Coinbase listed Dogecoin in June 2021, expanding its access and daily liquidity. The run also gained headlines when SpaceX funded the DOGE-1 satellite launch. During that peak, daily trading volumes often passed $5–10 billion, far higher than today’s daily level of about 580 million DOGE, which equals roughly $98 million.
Now it seems like retail flows now spread across newer meme tokens. Pudgy Penguins gained about 69% this week, and Bonk rose around 27% during the same period, while Dogecoin moved only about 3–4%. In past cycles, the same speculative capital mostly stayed inside Dogecoin, but now the market appears more diluted.
Additionally, the overall crypto market remains flat, with Bitcoin and other large tokens moving sideways in tight ranges. This neutral environment gives Dogecoin no extra lift from broader market trends for now.
