Dogecoin (DOGE) traded near $0.21 on August 22 as analyst Amaryllis projected a surge to $0.80 in the fourth quarter of 2025. The analyst said a breakout above $0.29 resistance could trigger the move, based on a repeating triangle and rounding bottom pattern.
In simple terms, Amaryllis believes DOGE is moving in a large triangular shape on the chart. Each time DOGE has broken out of such a setup in the past, the price has jumped sharply. The most recent example was in late 2024, when DOGE climbed from $0.18 to $0.49 within weeks. The analyst argues a similar move could repeat if $0.29 is broken with strength.
DOGE’s chart shows the $0.29 level as a wall of resistance. Resistance means a price point where sellers usually step in to stop further gains. For a rally to continue, DOGE must “break” this wall and turn it into support, meaning buyers hold the line above it.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying and selling pressure, sits near 46–52. A reading near 50 means neither bulls nor bears are in control. DOGE is not overheated, but it also lacks strong momentum.
The moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day) are compressed closely together. Moving averages smooth out price movements over time, and when they squeeze like this, it usually signals that a big move is coming soon.
If Dogecoin closes above $0.29 with high trading volume—which confirms real demand—the next price zones to watch are $0.36 and $0.49. Breaking $0.49 would open the way toward the analyst’s $0.80 projection. But if DOGE fails and slips under $0.21–$0.22 support, the price could revisit $0.18 instead.
Whales Move in While Retail Interest Fades
On-chain data shows accumulation by large holders but weak activity from retail users. Open interest in futures contracts has increased with price, meaning more traders are betting on DOGE in derivatives markets. Importantly, funding rates remain neutral, so leverage is not overheated. In other words, traders are active, but the market is not overly risky with excessive borrowing.
Exchange flows show more DOGE leaving exchanges than entering. This is considered bullish, because coins moved off exchanges are less likely to be sold immediately. Additionally, large transactions above $100,000 and $1 million have picked up, showing that whales—or large holders—are active.
However, retail activity remains weak. Daily active addresses are flat, and the 30-day average is declining. Active addresses measure how many wallets are sending or receiving DOGE each day. If this number stays low, it means new user demand is not growing.
The MVRV ratio, which compares the current market price to the average price at which holders bought DOGE, is around 64 percent. This means the average holder is in profit but not at extreme levels where many would rush to sell.
Dogecoin Breakout Depends on Volume and Network Revival
Amaryllis’s $0.80 target rests on DOGE price breaking and holding above $0.29 with strong volume. On-chain signals support accumulation: whales are active, exchange balances are falling, and leverage is healthy. These factors strengthen the bullish setup.
Yet, unlike the 2024 breakout, retail participation is stagnant. Fewer active addresses mean fewer new users are joining the network. Without this growth, sustaining a rally to $0.80 could prove more difficult than last year’s move from $0.18 to $0.49.
DOGE has the structural conditions for a breakout, but for the analyst’s projection to play out, both volume confirmation on the chart and a revival of network demand will be necessary. Until then, the path to $0.80 remains uncertain.
