On June 18, 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) traded at $0.169 and had already dropped 22% below a rising channel it created between April and early June 2025. The structure appeared after DOGE rebounded from its March lows and began forming higher highs and higher lows, with parallel trendlines marking the upper and lower bounds.
A rising channel is a chart pattern where prices move upward between two upward-sloping parallel lines, indicating a temporary bullish trend within a broader context. However, when the price breaks below the lower boundary, it often signals a reversal or a sharp downward move.
DOGE already tested the channel’s support line around early June. After failing to hold it, the price fell through and continued to decline. The breakdown is now visible, but confirmation remains uncertain. Traders usually wait for follow-up candles and increased volume to validate the breakout direction. So far, DOGE shows no strong recovery, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.192 acts as resistance.
If the rising channel confirms a full breakdown, the projected drop from the top of the pattern to the base could lead to a 138% decline from the current price. This would send Dogecoin as low as $0.071.
The price already dropped 22% below the rising channel’s bottom. Volume spikes during the decline suggest panic selling. However, without a confirmed retest or a strong rejection, traders remain uncertain whether the breakdown will sustain.
Dogecoin’s next moves may depend on how it interacts with the former channel boundary and the 50-day EMA resistance. If the price fails to reclaim those levels, the bearish case could strengthen.
Dogecoin MACD Turns Bearish Again as Momentum Weakens
This MACD chart, published on June 18, 2025, shows the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for Dogecoin (DOGE), using default settings (12, 26, close). As of now, the MACD line (blue) reads -0.0085, and the signal line (orange) sits at -0.0071, placing both in negative territory.
The MACD line has crossed below the signal line in early June 2025, which signals a bearish crossover. This pattern often indicates that downside momentum is building. Since then, the histogram bars have remained red and below the zero line, confirming sustained bearish pressure.
The last bullish crossover occurred in late April 2025, followed by a short-lived rally. That momentum faded by early June, when the bearish crossover occurred again. This shift coincides with DOGE’s 22% price drop from the rising channel seen on the price chart.
MACD, which measures the relationship between two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signals momentum strength and direction. When the MACD line drops below the signal line and stays below zero, it shows that selling momentum outweighs buying interest.
Currently, both the histogram and the moving lines show no signs of reversal. The downtrend remains active, and unless the MACD line moves above the signal line with histogram bars turning green, the bearish trend may persist.
Dogecoin RSI Slides Below 40, Signals Weak Momentum
This Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart for Dogecoin (DOGE), published on June 18, 2025, shows the 14-day RSI at 37.91. The RSI measures the speed and change of price movements on a scale from 0 to 100. It helps identify overbought and oversold conditions.
DOGE’s RSI is now below the neutral 50 level and approaching the oversold threshold of 30. The yellow line represents the RSI’s moving average, currently at 39.92. The purple RSI line crossing below this average suggests weakening strength and increased bearish pressure.
After peaking near 70 in early May 2025, DOGE’s RSI began a steady decline. The continued drop shows momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish. Each RSI bounce since then has failed to reclaim 50, confirming sellers are in control.
When the RSI moves below 30, it typically signals that an asset is oversold. Although DOGE is not yet in the oversold zone, it remains close, indicating selling may continue. However, without a confirmed bullish divergence or strong reversal signal, there is no clear sign of a recovery.
DOGE’s RSI remains firmly in bearish territory. This supports the downward pressure seen in both the price and the MACD.
Dogecoin SMI Signals Bearish Momentum Resumes
Meanwhile, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) chart, published on June 18, 2025, shows Dogecoin (DOGE) with both its SMI line (blue) and signal line (orange) moving downward. The SMI reading stands at -60.79, while the signal line is at -53.97. Both lines are below the neutral zero level and diverging, which points to renewed bearish momentum.
The Stochastic Momentum Index is a refined version of the Stochastic Oscillator. It measures the closing price’s position relative to the midpoint of the recent high-low range and smooths it over time. Readings above +40 typically suggest strong upward momentum, while readings below -40 indicate strong downward momentum.
DOGE’s SMI crossed below the signal line in early June 2025. That bearish crossover occurred just after the coin dropped out of its rising price channel. Since then, both lines have accelerated downward, confirming that bearish pressure continues to build.
Whenever the SMI stays below -40 for an extended period, it indicates that the asset remains in a strong bearish phase. In this case, both lines are well beneath that level. The continued separation between the SMI and the signal line also suggests that downward momentum has not yet weakened.
No signs of bullish divergence or crossover are visible yet. DOGE’s SMI pattern supports what is already evident in the MACD and RSI indicators—a sustained bearish trend without reversal confirmation.
