Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped 6.27% on June 24 to $0.1643 after rebounding from $0.150 support, amid a broader crypto market recovery driven by a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the liquidation of over $470 million in short positions. As DOGE reclaims technical levels and sentiment metrics improve, some analysts now believe a long-term move toward $1 is forming — but only if current conditions sustain.
Trader Predicts $1 DOGE in Next Bull Phase
Crypto trader Nirvan (@Nir7ann) wrote that traders are “stacking [Dogecoin] week by week,” predicting the upside sentiment will easily take the top memecoin to one dollar in the next run-up. His shared chart shows a multi-week consolidation pattern that mirrors accumulation setups seen before DOGE’s major rallies in 2021 and late 2023.
In May 2021, Dogecoin rallied 744% after breaking out of a consolidation zone near $0.08, as weekly RSI climbed above 70 and social dominance spiked past 8%.
In contrast, DOGE currently trades at $0.1643 with a weekly RSI at 42.56 and social dominance at 2.73%. While the current setup lacks the explosive momentum seen in prior cycles, Nirvan’s projection relies on the idea that the structure is once again forming at an early stage, with the breakout yet to occur.
RSI Recovery and 50-Day SMA Flip Hint at Early Trend Reversal
On both the weekly and 4-hour charts, RSI has recovered after prolonged weakness.
The 4-hour RSI now sits above 57, while the weekly RSI has bounced from a multimonth low of 38.31 to 42.56. This level aligns with the compression range DOGE established before its 2021 breakout, when RSI hovered between 35 and 45 for several weeks before moving sharply higher.
Although DOGE is not yet in breakout territory, the RSI setup is similar to past pre-rally phases.
DOGE is also approaching the 50-day simple moving average near $0.167. If price holds above this resistance-turned-support, it may confirm a structural reversal. The last time DOGE sustained above its 50-day SMA in March 2024, it gained more than 50% in less than a month.
Open Interest Drops 78% as Market Leverage Resets to Neutral
Santiment data shows that DOGE’s total open interest has declined to $690 million, down 78% from its peak of $3.2 billion in late 2024. This drop indicates a widespread reduction in leveraged speculation, clearing out excess risk that had built up during the last cycle.
In previous rallies, including Q4 2024, DOGE’s upside was often driven by overheated funding and rapidly increasing OI — a structure that proved unsustainable and triggered sharp reversals.
By contrast, current funding rates are near-neutral at 0.006%, showing that aggressive long positions are not driving the latest move. This cleaner market structure increases the likelihood that any upside will be more stable if confirmed by price action.
Despite improved technicals, DOGE faces strong resistance at $0.185, a level that rejected multiple attempts in May. Beyond that, $0.22 marks the upper boundary of the current range. DOGE has not posted a higher high on the weekly chart since March 2024. Unless the price closes above $0.22 with momentum, any bullish thesis will remain incomplete.
