NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) — Ethereum’s price action has sparked intense debate among traders, as the asset remains under pressure following a turbulent first quarter of 2025. Market data shows ETH has fallen nearly 16% over 12 hours. It briefly dipped below $1,800 for the first time since October 2023. Analysts now warn that the next move could determine Ethereum’s trajectory for the coming months.
Crypto market capitalization has also taken a hit, dropping by $240 billion in a single day. This erased all gains made since the U.S. elections, pushing total market value down to $2.6 trillion. With Ethereum leading the losses among top altcoins, questions arise over whether the asset is nearing its bottom or preparing for further declines.
Ethereum’s Q1 Struggles Raise Questions About Q2 Outlook
Technical patterns suggest conflicting outcomes. Ethereum’s current price action shows a falling wedge. This is a historically bullish reversal pattern that could send ETH toward $3,600 if confirmed. However, failure to hold key support levels near $1,800 could expose the asset to further downside, with some analysts eyeing a worst-case scenario of $1,200.
A tweet from @CryptoELlTES highlights Ethereum’s quarterly history, noting that 2013 and 2017 saw fully green first quarters, while 2025 has so far remained entirely red. “Are cycle extensions happening? Will Ethereum start its run by the end of March?” the post asked, hinting at the uncertainty surrounding ETH’s next move.
Other traders, including EGRAG CRYPTO, have shifted their stance based on weak market structure. EGRAG initially expected a rally to $6,000 or $7,500 but exited at $3,850 due to poor technical readings. Now, he remains sidelined until Ethereum confirms a more stable trend.
Meanwhile, data from Lookonchain suggests large holders may be offloading ETH at $2,000 to avoid liquidations. This pressure has further fueled bearish sentiment, with the ETH/BTC ratio dropping to its lowest level since Dec. 2020 at 0.023, signaling weakening demand against Bitcoin.
Institutional Demand Wanes as Coinbase Premium Index Turns Negative
Institutional participation in Ethereum appears to be weakening. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures demand from U.S. investors, remains negative. This indicates ETH is trading at a discount on Coinbase compared to Binance, signaling lower appetite from institutional and retail traders in the U.S.
Source: CryptoQuant
Historically, extended periods of negative Coinbase Premium values have aligned with price downturns. This reinforced the bearish outlook. For Ethereum to regain bullish momentum, analysts argue the index must turn positive, reflecting renewed accumulation from major buyers.
Network Disruptions Add to Ethereum’s Woes
Ethereum’s market struggles have been compounded by technical issues on its testnet. On March 9, Ethereum developer Marius van der Wijden revealed an unknown attacker was flooding the Pectra testnet with zero-token transfers. This caused empty blocks.
“We suspected the attacker was reading some of our chats, so we decided not to publicize the fix,” van der Wijden stated. He explained how the team discreetly updated select nodes to restore functionality. The incident highlights ongoing vulnerabilities within Ethereum’s ecosystem, adding to concerns over its stability amid volatile market conditions.
Bottom or Breakdown? ETH Faces a Critical Test
Ethereum’s price movements suggest an inflection point. Market participants remain divided on whether ETH is nearing the end of a corrective phase or at the beginning of a prolonged bear cycle.
Analyst @0xQuit weighed in on the debate, questioning whether the asset is at the start of a bear market or approaching its bottom. “That seems reasonable given the pain we’ve seen,” he noted, highlighting ETH’s 50% decline over the past three months.
Should Ethereum fail to reclaim key resistance levels, forecasts of deeper losses to $1,500—or even as low as $200 to $400—could come into play. This would mimick previous bear market cycles that saw ETH lose over 90% of its value.
