NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — The cryptocurrency market is navigating a complex landscape, influenced by global economic shifts and geopolitical developments. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $85,000, reflecting a period of relative stability after previous fluctuations. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, holds steady at nearly $1,600.
The broader altcoin market, represented by Total 2 (the market capitalization excluding Bitcoin), has shown resilience, maintaining its position despite recent challenges. Historically, any downtrend has become the best friend of the clever trader, who ends up buying the “dip.”
Recent macroeconomic events have significantly shaped market sentiment. The U.S. administration’s imposition of tariffs, including a 10% levy on all imports and a 145% duty on Chinese electric vehicles, has reignited trade tensions reminiscent of the 2018 standoff. These measures have introduced uncertainty, impacting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Investor sentiment has been cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflecting a neutral stance. While some retail traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach, institutional investors closely monitor the evolving economic indicators.
Despite these headwinds, historical data suggests market consolidation periods have often preceded significant uptrends in the crypto space. As the market assesses the implications of these developments, the question arises: Is now the opportune moment to invest in Bitcoin and altcoins?
Bitcoin and Ethereum: A Playbook for Resilience
Bitcoin has endured nearly every financial catastrophe the crypto space could throw. From early exchange failures to macro-driven selloffs, BTC’s historical trajectory suggests that each crash is a launchpad for the next growth phase. The chart data highlights four major drawdowns—starting with the Mt. Gox collapse in 2014, where Bitcoin dropped roughly 69% in weeks. The aftermath led to months of stagnation, but eventually, BTC built momentum for its landmark 2017 bull run.
That rally ended in the 2018 bear market, when Bitcoin plunged over 80%, bottoming near $3,100. Yet by December 2020, the asset had recovered and breached $20,000 for the first time. Then came COVID-19 in March 2020—Bitcoin lost 56% in a few days.
But within 18 months, it surged over 1,000% to hit $69,000. The next test arrived in November 2022, when the collapse of FTX dragged Bitcoin down 35% in a week. The fear was widespread, but those who accumulated during the lows benefited as BTC rebounded over 600% in the following year.
Ethereum followed a similar arc, albeit with deeper volatility. In the 2018 bear cycle, ETH nosedived more than 90%, collapsing from over $1,400 to under $100. Its recovery, however, was just as dramatic—Ethereum peaked near $4,800 in 2021.
During the COVID panic, ETH fell sharply, and the FTX collapsed again, sending it into a temporary spiral. But in each case, ETH’s correlation with BTC helped it rebound in tandem.
For investors, these cycles show a pattern: Those willing to endure fear and hold—or buy—during deep retracements often find themselves on the winning side once macro pressure fades. While volatility remains, Bitcoin and Ethereum have built a playbook for recovery that continues to reward patient capital.
Altcoins and Total 2: Higher Risk, Higher Rebound
On the other hand, Altcoins are an amplified version of this volatility cycle. The Total 2 chart, which tracks the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, offers a telling look at how these assets behave during turbulent times.
In the 2018 crash, Total 2 dropped a staggering 92%, shedding over $400 billion in value. Tokens with weak fundamentals vanished entirely, while those with strong ecosystems—like Ethereum, Cardano, and Solana—took longer to recover but eventually outpaced many traditional assets in performance.
The COVID crash added to the chaos. Total 2 fell by nearly 65% in days, dragging most altcoins down. Yet what followed was a historic rebound. Between April 2020 and November 2021, the altcoin sector posted gains exceeding 3,000%, pushing the Total 2 to $1.65 trillion.
That recovery wasn’t driven by speculative frenzy alone—it was backed by real infrastructure growth: smart contracts, DeFi, NFTs, and scaling solutions all matured during this window. Once again, the data underscored the idea that extreme capitulation sets the stage for extreme upside.
Even the FTX collapse in late 2022, which erased nearly $184 billion from the altcoin market, was followed by a 245% rebound over the next year. These recurring patterns of collapse and resurgence define the altcoin landscape. It’s a cycle fueled by fear-driven exits and value-driven entries. Traders identifying these pivot points often realize gains that outpace traditional markets.
Still, altcoins remain inherently risky. They face higher regulatory uncertainty, liquidity challenges, and technological execution risks. But for investors willing to stomach this volatility, history suggests that accumulation during maximum fear has consistently laid the foundation for maximum upside. As with Bitcoin and Ethereum, timing the bottom is difficult, but understanding the cycle is essential.
Market Sentiment: Bitcoin Bulls Stay Focused, Altcoin Buyers Turn Cautious
As Bitcoin consolidates near the $88,000 level in late April 2025, market sentiment across X (formerly Twitter) shows a split narrative—optimism tempered by macro caution and tactical hesitancy. While BTC bulls remain firmly positioned, the altcoin crowd is treading more carefully.
One trader, known as Astronomer, noted that BTC had reached a key level of interest near $88,000. The trader confirmed in a reply to their tweet that they are holding spot positions and are not yet shorting, suggesting the market has not given a clear reversal cue.
Instead, Astroomer stated that he would continue to ride the rally upward, expecting another push toward the $90,000–$92,000 liquidity zone. The absence of whale distribution and a bearish weekly close keeps high-leverage bears at bay.
Meanwhile, Lofty shared an updated Altseason Cycle matrix, arguing that conditions now resemble those seen before past altcoin rallies. The trader stated that a rotation might be near with Bitcoin dominance peaking and altcoin strength slowly emerging.
Coins like NEAR, SUI, and INJ have already posted 10–20% gains, offering early signs of altseason momentum. Longer.eth echoed the sentiment, urging investors to accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana during fearful market phases, noting such periods have historically offered outsized returns.
On the other hand, trader Kaitol expressed skepticism, citing concerns over long-term buying saturation and the potential for institutional sell pressure. They warned that macro risks—including recession fears and dollar weakness—could dampen BTC’s upside.
Together, these views reflect a market in flux: bullish conviction exists, but with an undercurrent of caution. Timing, more than ever, remains the key.
