Hedera’s native token, HBAR, has staged a sharp recovery heading into 2026, rebounding more than 220% from its December 2024 low near $0.041.
The rally marked one of HBAR’s strongest multi-month performances in years, briefly lifting prices toward the $0.40 level before momentum cooled. Since then, the market has shifted into consolidation mode, but the structure of that pullback is keeping bullish expectations firmly alive. Let’s examine how.
HBAR Bull Flag Pattern Points to $0.82 Target
After peaking near $0.40, HBAR slipped into a declining channel marked by lower highs and steady support—a structure that closely resembles a classic bull flag. This pattern typically forms after a strong impulsive rally, followed by a controlled pullback that allows momentum to reset without breaking the broader uptrend.
Bull flags often resolve with a continuation breakout, with upside targets measured by extending the height of the prior rally from the breakout point. Using this method places HBAR’s potential upside near $0.82, roughly double current levels, and aligned with key higher-timeframe Fibonacci extensions.
HBAR also remains above its long-term moving averages, reinforcing the view that the larger bullish structure is still intact. A breakout above the flag’s upper boundary would likely confirm trend continuation, while a breakdown below support could delay the move.
If the setup plays out, $0.82 stands out as a credible 2026 upside target rather than an extreme or speculative projection. That’s up by over 750% from current price levels.
As of January, HBAR showed signs of recovery after testing the flag’s lower trendline as support, raising the odds of reaching the upper trendline target at around $0.245 in Q1 2026. That level aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line.
What Could Change the Bullish HBAR Outlook?
Hedera’s 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave), currently at around $0.142, may cap its upside attempts in January.
A pullback from the wave resistance could push HBAR’s price toward the $0.07-0.11 area, aligning with the 0.236-0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels. In doing so, the token risks losing the flag’s lower trendline support, which could increase its freefall potential toward lower Fib lines, primarily the $0.04 level.
