The United States government entered a shutdown on October 1, and the Securities and Exchange Commission moved to skeleton operations under a pre-approved contingency plan. In practice, the agency is prioritizing only emergency market-protection tasks and pausing most discretionary work, including reviews of pending digital-asset product filings. This step immediately affects timelines for issuers seeking approvals or amendments and limits staff capacity on non-urgent matters.
Moreover, the reduced staffing footprint constrains some enforcement and litigation activity, even as the commission keeps essential surveillance and risk-monitoring functions online. Market participants now face uncertainty around administrative clocks and comment cycles that normally govern registration statements and exemptive relief, which in turn influences launch schedules and service rollouts across the crypto sector. However, bank regulators funded outside congressional appropriations, such as the Federal Reserve and FDIC, continue operating, creating a split landscape for firms that interact with multiple agencies.
Consequently, product sponsors and trading venues must re-align their near-term expectations with a slower federal cadence. Legal teams will keep preparing filings and responses, yet the absence of routine SEC processing means key milestones can slip until normal funding returns. In previous shutdowns, the commission has resumed work by triaging backlogs; the same approach appears likely once Congress restores appropriations, but there is no definitive resumption date as of today.
Abu Dhabi bans crypto mining on farms, adds fines for violations
Abu Dhabi’s Agriculture and Food Safety Authority reaffirmed that cryptocurrency mining on farms is prohibited, citing conflicts with agricultural land use and strain on local energy resources. The directive, published today, sets a 100,000-dirham penalty for violations and doubles the fine for repeat offenses. Officials positioned the measure as a targeted land-use and energy-management action rather than a commentary on digital assets themselves, focusing enforcement on agricultural properties.
In explaining the scope, authorities distinguished farms from licensed data-center or industrial operations that fall under separate permitting and utility frameworks. That distinction matters because Abu Dhabi has encouraged regulated computing infrastructure while seeking to prevent unpermitted high-load activity in zones reserved for food production. By clarifying the penalties and the property types in scope, the authority aims to remove ambiguity that previously allowed ad-hoc or concealed setups to proliferate on rural plots.
The announcement adds another example of regional policy that differentiates between industrial-scale facilities and small, unlicensed installations. For Bitcoin network participants, the rule underscores how local land-use and energy policies can shape where and how mining may legally occur, even inside jurisdictions that otherwise support digital-infrastructure investment. As enforcement begins, farm operators face a clear incentive to dismantle rigs or relocate them to zones with appropriate licensing.
New York bill would tax proof-of-work mining electricity, with a renewable carve-out
In New York State, lawmakers introduced a bill to impose an excise tax on electricity used by proof-of-work mining, creating tiered rates that rise with annual consumption. According to the sponsors, the measure exempts facilities powered entirely by off-grid renewable energy and directs the resulting revenue to the state’s Energy Affordability Programs. The framework attempts to internalize grid-impact and environmental costs while rewarding miners who invest in dedicated clean generation.
As written, the bill sets several consumption bands with per-kilowatt-hour surcharges that scale from mid-range usage into very high-draw operations. Because the tax applies specifically to proof-of-work validation, it would fall most directly on Bitcoin miners and similar PoW networks operating within the state. The renewable exemption, however, signals a policy path for operators that can decouple from the public grid by deploying their own wind, solar, hydro, or other qualifying sources.
If enacted, the proposal would add a predictable, state-level cost component to grid-tied PoW facilities and could influence site selection, power-purchase contracts, and equipment-efficiency strategies. The measure now moves to committee consideration, and industry groups are expected to weigh in on whether the tax structure accurately reflects grid costs and whether the exemption is workable at scale for new and existing mines. Until then, New York miners face a potential policy change that could materially alter their operating models.
Analyst flags $139K target as Bitcoin nears upper MVRV band
Crypto analyst Ali said Bitcoin’s move above the $117,000 level opens a path toward $139,000, citing Glassnode’s “MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands.” In his post, he argued that spot price crossing a key band signals momentum toward the next band higher. The shared chart plots Bitcoin’s price against multiple standard-deviation bands derived from the market-value-to-realized-value metric, with the realized price shown near $53,931 on September 30, 2025. The visual places BTC close to the upper half of its historical deviation range, where prior advances have often slowed or consolidated.
The MVRV bands translate valuation extremes into dynamic thresholds. In simple terms, when market price pushes through a positive deviation band, it suggests investors as a group are sitting on larger unrealized gains than usual. Historically, such breaks have aligned with trend continuation toward the next band, yet they have also coincided with sharper pullbacks once the highest bands are tested. Therefore, the $139,000 level functions as an indicative zone anchored to the current 1.5–2.0σ region on the model, not a fixed line.
Moreover, these bands shift with the realized price, which rises as long-term holders move coins and reset cost bases. As a result, the projected level can drift over time, and the signal weakens if spot falls back below the recently cleared band. Traders who follow on-chain models typically pair them with liquidity, funding, and derivatives positioning to confirm risk. Ali’s call, grounded in a widely tracked Glassnode framework, highlights that Bitcoin is operating in a valuation regime where upside targets remain visible on the model, while the distance to overheated zones is narrowing.
Bitcoin RSI hits highest level since July peak
Analyst Ted highlighted that Bitcoin’s four-hour relative strength index (RSI) has reached its most overbought point since the July top. The RSI, which tracks momentum by comparing the size of recent gains to recent losses, closed above 80 on October 2. Such readings usually suggest that buyers have pushed the market into overheated territory in the short term.
The accompanying chart, sourced from TradingView, shows Bitcoin trading near $119,600 on Binance while the RSI curve surged past its overbought threshold. The last time RSI climbed to similar levels, Bitcoin entered a corrective phase followed by sideways consolidation. That historical comparison explains why analysts watch momentum indicators closely at this stage of the rally.
Overbought signals do not always lead to immediate pullbacks, but they often mark exhaustion in short-term buying pressure. If Bitcoin mirrors past behavior, traders may see either a temporary correction or a pause before the next major move. Ted’s note underscores how momentum metrics like RSI continue to guide market participants as Bitcoin tests new levels.
Bitcoin charts a rising channel into October 2, 2025
The daily BTC/USDT chart was created on October 2. It displays a rising channel that has developed from roughly May through early October, with parallel trendlines connecting a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. Price closed near $119,700 on Bitstamp while the 50-day EMA sat near $113,845, which lines up as dynamic support inside the formation. The chart also marks a reference line near $202,250 and projects an arrow toward that area, illustrating an upside scenario if momentum persists beyond the channel’s ceiling.
A rising channel shows a controlled uptrend with two parallel, rising lines. The lower line marks demand as buyers step in on pullbacks. The upper line marks supply as rallies meet profit-taking. Price travels between these rails and signals trend continuation until a clear break. A breakout above the top rail often speeds momentum because supply thins above prior highs. A rejection at the ceiling usually sends price back toward the midline or the lower rail. The channel does not set a fixed measured move. Instead, it maps the path and the levels where behavior tends to change.
From about $119,700, a 69% move projects near $202,300. That level matches the $202,250 marker on your chart. However, the channel alone does not confirm it. Buyers still control while higher lows hold. The upper rail remains the trigger. If Bitcoin breaks and holds above that ceiling with strong volume, the path opens toward $202,300. If it stalls at resistance, price likely rotates inside the channel. In that case, the 50-day EMA and the lower rail act as support.
Bitcoin MACD turns positive into October 2, 2025
The MACD chart was created on October 2, 2025. It shows the MACD line (blue) crossing above the signal line (orange) as the histogram flips green and expands. That shift indicates bullish momentum returning on the timeframe used, since upside force now exceeds downside force in recent sessions. The bars rising above the zero axis confirm that buying pressure has started to dominate after September’s negative phase.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) compares a fast and a slow exponential moving average to measure trend strength and direction. When the MACD line moves above the signal line, momentum accelerates; when it drops below, momentum fades. The histogram visualizes the distance between those lines, so taller green bars show strengthening upside impulse, while shrinking bars warn that momentum is cooling even before a crossover.
Today’s configuration highlights three points. First, the bullish crossover occurred after a brief dip below zero, which often precedes fresh impulse if price holds its higher-low structure. Second, the histogram has turned positive and is widening, which typically supports continuation until the slope flattens. Third, prior swings on this chart—from April, July, and mid-September—show that strong green phases eventually stalled as the histogram peaked and rolled over; therefore, momentum must maintain expansion to avoid another fade.
In practical terms, the MACD now favors buyers while the signal remains above zero and the histogram keeps building. If the histogram shortens or the blue line curls toward the orange line, momentum would be stalling, increasing the odds of consolidation. Until that happens, the indicator reads as a renewed trend push that aligns with the broader uptrend visible on your daily chart.
