Shiba Inu (SHIB) could rise 110% to $0.000029, according to analyst Mary Emerald, who pointed to a bullish double bottom breakout and rising social sentiment as key catalysts. SHIB traded around $0.00001449 on July 17, up 16.5% in the last 7 days.
The forecast came as SHIB flipped key resistance levels and joined a broader meme coin recovery. But the strength of this rally — and the likelihood of hitting $0.000029 — remains uncertain when weighed against on-chain trends and technical signals.
Chart Structure Supports Near-Term Gains, But Not 110%
Shiba Inu recently broke out of a double bottom formation near $0.0000135 and entered a rising price channel. Based on measured move calculations, the breakout projects a technical upside target near $0.000020–$0.000021.
While this setup confirms bullish momentum, it falls short of the $0.000029 forecast. In addition, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed 72, entering overbought territory. Historically, RSI levels above 70 often precede consolidation or short-term pullbacks, which could pause the rally before higher targets are reached.
Despite the valid chart breakout, on-chain indicators show only mild support for continued upside. Exchange netflow data reveals that more SHIB is leaving exchanges than entering — a bullish signal that usually points to accumulation.
However, these outflows remain relatively flat without any surge in withdrawals. There’s no indication of strong conviction from new buyers or whales aggressively moving tokens off platforms. This weakens the broader breakout narrative.
Whale Exit Raises Red Flag on Rally Extension
Santiment data adds further complexity. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion SHIB have reduced their balances over the past month, suggesting distribution into recent strength. Meanwhile, the largest holders — those with over 1 billion SHIB — have slightly increased their holdings.
This mixed behavior indicates that while some large players are adding exposure, others are taking profits. Retail wallets under 100 million SHIB have also declined, pointing to weakening grassroots participation during the rally.
Without broad accumulation from both mid-tier whales and retail, the current uptrend may lose steam before reaching the analyst’s target.
While price action has improved, Shiba Inu’s ecosystem metrics have not shown a corresponding spike. Shibarium processes around 4.65 million daily transactions and maintains over 267 million wallet addresses. Network utilization stands at 50%.
A rally to $0.000029 would typically require investor confidence and ecosystem momentum — often supported by active development. However, SHIB’s GitHub activity remains low, and contributor participation is sparse.
Bitcoin Weakness Could Undercut SHIB Rally Setup
SHIB’s price structure remains bullish, but the broader market environment introduces risk. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $117,790 after failing to hold above $119,000. The daily RSI for BTC stands at 66.17 — just below overbought levels — indicating potential exhaustion in the near term.
With SHIB showing a 30-day correlation of 0.92 to Bitcoin, any cooling in BTC could directly weaken SHIB’s momentum. While the meme coin sector is rallying, SHIB’s price direction remains largely tied to Bitcoin’s next move.
Unless BTC reclaims and holds above recent highs, SHIB’s breakout may lose steam before reaching the analyst’s $0.000029 target.
SHIB is also trailing other meme tokens in the current rebound. BONK and FLOKI posted weekly gains of 68.7% and 43.5%, respectively, compared to SHIB’s 16.5% increase. The data shows that while the meme coin market is recovering, SHIB is not leading the charge.
The lag raises further doubt over the 110% surge projection. If SHIB were to lead a sector-wide breakout, broader participation and faster price acceleration would likely be visible.
