The TRUMP token gained 15% over the past week and now trades near $14.47, according to TradingView. The price is close to a key resistance at $14.53. If TRUMP breaks above this level, the next target could be $17.14. The recent rally follows weeks of volatility and a strong sell-off in February and March.

The TRUMP token’s recent surge aligns with significant geopolitical developments. The United States and the United Kingdom finalized a trade agreement on May 8, 2025, reducing tariffs on various goods, including a decrease in U.S. tariffs on UK car imports from 27.5% to 10% and the elimination of tariffs on British steel and aluminum. In return, the UK agreed to increase imports of American products such as ethanol and beef .

Concurrently, the U.S. and China reached a preliminary agreement aimed at resolving ongoing trade tensions. The negotiations, held in Geneva, Switzerland, resulted in both nations agreeing to establish a new platform for tariff negotiations and to reduce existing tariffs, with the U.S. considering lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 80%.

These diplomatic advancements have bolstered investor confidence in assets associated with former President Donald Trump, contributing to the TRUMP token’s price increase.

TRUMP’s Average Directional Index (ADX) currently reads 32.03, based on the latest TradingView data. This value is well above the neutral threshold of 25, confirming a strong trend is in place. The ADX began rising steadily in early April, peaked near the end of the month above 40, and has slightly cooled off in May.

Despite the slight decline from peak levels, the ADX remains above the 30 mark, indicating that bullish momentum is still active. This trend strength supports the recent upward price movement and suggests continued buying pressure as long as the ADX stays above 25.

However, on-chain data from Santiment shows that weighted sentiment spiked during the US–UK deal announcement but dropped shortly afterward. This drop suggests that investors reacted to the headlines, but long-term confidence in TRUMP may still be weak.

The price of TRUMP appears to rely heavily on short-term news. This makes the token vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if political momentum fades or talks stall.

What Happens Next for TRUMP Price?

On May 12, 2025, the TRUMP/USDT 4-hour chart shows a confirmed breakout from a bullish falling wedge pattern. A falling wedge is a technical pattern that appears when the price forms lower highs and lower lows within converging downward-sloping lines. It typically signals a potential reversal to the upside when broken with volume.

TRUMP’s breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline signals the start of a new upward leg. Based on the height of the wedge and projected breakout targets, the price may climb approximately 10% from the breakout level. The upside target is marked around $15.47, based on the previous local top and measured move calculations.

The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $13.02, is sloping upward, supporting the ongoing bullish structure. The price remains above this EMA, which often acts as dynamic support during rallies.

At the top of the chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements, stands at 62.70. This level is below the overbought threshold of 70, which means there is still room for further upside before the asset becomes overheated.

Trading volume remains healthy at 2.38 million, according to the chart, confirming that the breakout has buyer interest behind it. The recent price behavior also shows higher lows after the breakout, suggesting sustained bullish momentum.

If TRUMP maintains this momentum and holds above the 50 EMA, the bullish target remains within reach. However, if the price drops back below the wedge and the EMA, this would invalidate the breakout and shift focus back to consolidation or correction

3.5 Million TRUMP Tokens Moved as Whale Transfers Stir Market Volatility

Meanwhile, on May 10, 2025, a wallet linked to the TRUMP token team transferred 3.5 million tokens to several major exchanges. The total value of this move was around $52.66 million, according to Lookonchain. The sudden transfer raised concerns across the meme coin community, as large inflows to exchanges often signal potential sell-offs. Traders are now watching order books closely for signs of price drops.

The tokens were distributed across four key platforms. Binance received 1.5 million TRUMP tokens worth approximately $22.41 million. OKX followed with 1 million tokens valued at $15.06 million. Both Bybit and Coinbase got 500,000 tokens each, worth about $7.53 million and $7.48 million. These transfers suggest increased trading availability and possibly the beginning of a large-scale liquidation. All transaction data comes from the public blockchain.

At the same time, market maker Cumberland DRW moved 300,000 TRUMP tokens to OKX, valued near $4.4 million. Combined with earlier flows, over $24 million worth of TRUMP entered exchanges in recent days. Observers noted the timing—just ahead of a high-profile political event scheduled for May 22.

Some investors suspect this may indicate an exit strategy by major holders. Others say market makers typically move assets to manage risk or stabilize order books. Either way, market watchers expect more transfers and fast reactions.

WLFI Makes Big Crypto Purchases

In addition, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), linked to a political figure, made major crypto buys. The group purchased 1,587 ETH worth $3.5 million and 9.7 wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) worth $1 million. On April 29, WLFI also deposited $19.58 million in tokens to exchanges.

These movements add to speculation about its involvement with the TRUMP token.

Overall, TRUMP’s price remains tied to geopolitical headlines and Donald Trump’s public image. As long as political news favors the former president, the token may keep climbing. But without lasting investor confidence, any gains could be short-lived.