YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — The Conference Board released the US Leading Economic Index (LEI) for March 2025 on April 21. The indicator dropped by 0.5%, matching analysts’ median forecast. In February, it had declined 0.3%, following a modest 0.1% gain in December 2024. This continued trend reflects weak manufacturing orders and consumer pessimism.
The six-month growth rate of the LEI has improved, showing a slower pace of decline compared to 2024. Analysts expect US GDP to grow 2.0% in 2025. However, uncertainty remains high due to policy developments like the reintroduction of tariffs under Donald Trump’s platform. These tariffs could slow supply chains and reduce capital investment.
Bitcoin price movements are often sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. A falling LEI suggests reduced appetite for risk, which usually affects digital assets. In past downturns, Bitcoin has struggled during periods of economic contraction, especially when traditional investors move capital into bonds or money market funds.
Services PMI Points to Dollar Strength and Bitcoin Pressure
The S&P Global US Services PMI for March stood at 54.4, up from 51.0 in February. This reading shows clear expansion in the services sector. The composite PMI reached 53.5. Both data points indicate that consumer demand remains firm across services, including travel, dining, and logistics.
A stronger services sector often leads to a more resilient US dollar. This happens because investors lower their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Higher yields on US bonds increase dollar demand and reduce the relative appeal of Bitcoin. In previous cycles, Bitcoin price has dropped when the dollar index rises and real yields gain momentum.
The median forecast for April’s Services PMI is 53.0. If that forecast holds, it still reflects growth. However, S&P Global flagged concerns from businesses over rising operational costs and longer supply times.
Bitcoin, in this context, faces headwinds from two sides. A firm dollar and rate-hold expectations decrease investor demand for risk assets. On the other hand, short-term stock rallies linked to strong services numbers could create a narrow window of price support. That effect, however, would likely be temporary if other indicators flash caution.
Manufacturing PMI Data Weighs on Bitcoin Price Outlook
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 in March, down from 52.7 in February. The ISM Manufacturing PMI showed deeper contraction, falling to 49.0 from 50.3. New orders, production, and employment all declined. These readings suggest a near-stalling industrial sector.
This weakness is not isolated. In October 2024, the ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 46.5, showing that pressure on factories has persisted for months. The recent decline is part of a broader struggle involving high borrowing costs and weak global demand. Moody’s Analytics also pointed to unresolved trade frictions under the Trump administration as a core problem.
Analysts say weak industrial data usually signals tighter financial conditions, which reduces capital allocation to speculative assets.
In theory, weak manufacturing could encourage expectations of interest rate cuts. However, persistent inflation and tariff-linked cost increases complicate that outlook. So far, there is little indication that the Fed plans to ease monetary policy before inflation stabilizes.
Jobless Claims Signal Fragile Labor Market Conditions
Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 19 came in at 215,000, compared to 223,000 the previous week. This small drop shows some stabilization in layoffs, though hiring remains under pressure. Employers continue to adjust to high rates, reduced demand, and policy uncertainties.
US labor market sentiment remains weak. According to analysts, 66% of Americans expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months. This level of pessimism, not seen since the 2008 crisis, suggests that many households remain concerned about job security and income prospects.
Jobless claims play a key role in shaping liquidity expectations. If layoffs slow and employment stabilizes, it could improve consumer spending in the short term. However, lower unemployment also gives the Fed less reason to cut interest rates. This keeps liquidity tight, reducing Bitcoin’s near-term appeal.
When unemployment data reflects rising risk in the labor market, crypto investors often move cautiously. But if jobless claims drop for several consecutive weeks, Bitcoin can benefit as investors anticipate easier financial conditions. For now, this week’s numbers suggest neither extreme—just fragile balance.
Consumer Sentiment Hits Historical Lows
Moreover, The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index remained at 50.8 in March 2025. That reading marks one of the lowest in the index’s history. It dropped from February’s level and now reflects a broader pessimism tied to inflation and policy anxiety.
A global markets investor said the sentiment score is lower than at any point during past US recessions.
“Consumer sentiment fell to 50.8, the 2nd-lowest level in history,”
they noted.
“This is a crisis.”
The comment points to a lack of confidence in the broader economy, despite stable employment and moderate GDP growth.
Consumer prices remain elevated, especially for imported goods. Supply chain disruptions have raised costs for appliances, electronics, and autos. Retailers have reported lower foot traffic in some regions, citing cautious buyer behavior.
In crypto markets, sentiment matters because most trading volume comes from retail participants. Bitcoin has shown in previous cycles that sharp sentiment drops coincide with lower market activity and weaker price levels.
Until consumer confidence shows meaningful recovery, Bitcoin price may remain under pressure, particularly if economic uncertainty persists.
Bitcoin Price Holds Near $87K Ahead of Key US Economic Data
As of April 21, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $87,594, showing a 0.47% increase in the last 4-hour candle, according to TradingView. The current price sits above the 50-period EMA of $84,486, signaling short-term bullish pressure in the 4-hour timeframe.
The price movement follows several days of consolidation between $84,000 and $86,500. Bitcoin broke above that range in the early hours of April 21, briefly touching $87,705 before pulling back slightly. Trading volume remains moderate, with no significant breakout momentum visible on the chart.
So far, Bitcoin’s current price action shows moderate optimism, but direction remains tied to upcoming economic releases and broader financial conditions.
