The Ripple-linked crypto token XRP saw its price slide to near $2 on June 23, following the wider market’s response to increased tensions in the Middle East. Since its $3.40 peak in mid-Jan. 2025, the token has remained trapped in a persistent downward channel. Lower highs and weakening momentum continue to dominate its structure.
XRP price drop came in lockstep with a broader crypto selloff, as Bitcoin plunged below $103,000 and Ethereum fell under the key $2,300 mark.
Following fresh airstrike campaigns, U.S. forces have become increasingly entangled in the regional crisis. The resulting geopolitical risk has rattled global markets. Risk-on assets like crypto and tech stocks saw a steep outflow, while traditional safe havens like the U.S. dollar and gold ticked higher. Traders fled leveraged positions en masse.
Data from CoinGlass shows that the latest downturn erased over $1.5 billion in long liquidations since June 20. This is nearly five times the $326.3 million in short liquidations during the same period. That skew confirms an aggressive bull capitulation, with leveraged long positions unwinding rapidly.
Moreover, the sharp imbalance also highlighted how quickly sentiment flipped across major assets. XRP is now seeing previous bullish price predictions—ranging from $3.80 to $5.00—rapidly evaporating from social media.
With XRP now trading under critical neckline levels, the spotlight turns to leading analysts who are calling for deeper corrections if current support fails to hold.
Bearish Forecasts Gain Momentum Amid Geopolitical Shock
The intensifying Middle East conflict has triggered a flight from risk and reignited some of the most bearish XRP forecasts in months. Analysts and traders have begun surfacing stark downside targets. Many have cited chart breakdowns, rising volatility, and collapsing sentiment. Several veteran voices now warn that the recent crash may just be the beginning of a steeper decline for XRP.
Crypto analyst Jesse Olson’s warning stands out for its bluntness: XRP could fall below $1. “Many will be surprised,” Olsen wrote, but the technical case for such a drop has gained traction. A sustained breakdown from the descending channel, now in play since mid-Jan. 2025, could open the door to that sub-dollar region.
The lower trendline from Olsen’s chart currently points toward the $1.10–$1.20 area. Moreover, any close below the $1.49 support band would deepen the selloff.
Meanwhile, another crypto analyst, going by the username “Man of Bitcoin,” shared that XRP has broken below an ascending trendline on the 4H chart. The token now rests near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, but the wave count suggests that at least one more leg down is likely.
The analyst noted the strong Fibonacci confluence near the $1.80 level—a region that may offer temporary support, though only as part of a broader corrective wave 5 structure. The chart in the post showed the area coinciding with historical support and wave projections. This deepens the case for continued downside unless macro conditions reverse.
Meanwhile, an analyst shared a post on TradingView, highlighting that XRP price remains capped below trendline resistance. Momentum indicators like the Stochastic RSI remain weak. With no bullish divergence, downside continuation appears likely unless XRP can reclaim $2.30 with volume.
As long as the macro picture remains unstable, the Ripple-linked token prices may struggle to hold key support.
Not Everyone is Bearish
Despite the mounting bearish pressure, not all analysts are convinced XRP’s trajectory is doomed. A market segment still believes the recent plunge is part of a shakeout before a stronger upside move resumes. These voices argued that the current dip was not a breakdown, but a structured correction necessary to reset overbought conditions and remove weak hands.
Crypto trader CasiTrades emphasized that XRP’s fall toward the $1.90 region was anticipated. In her analysis, she noted that the zone marked the macro 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. CasiTrades stated that the move closely mirrored Bitcoin’s own drop toward the 0.236 Fib near $97,000. She described the parallel structure across the two top assets as a potential sign of algorithmic convergence. If both levels get tagged, she suggests it could create the conditions for a powerful bullish reversal.
Meanwhile, another analyst, Amonyx, called for a “massive XRP breakout,” citing a long-term symmetrical triangle pattern on the monthly chart. His chart implies XRP could be nearing the apex of this multi-year consolidation, with the potential for explosive upside if price confirms above key structural levels.
While bears dominate the headlines, bullish traders see this as the moment to accumulate, not exit.
XRP Bulls Struggle to Defend the $2 Mark
Adding to the bearish narrative, the XRP/USD bulls are struggling, with the token currently hovering around $2.01. The breakdown marks a critical shift in structure. XRP price is now trading below all key exponential moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200), which have begun to align in a classic bearish stack—a sign of deteriorating trend strength.
The next major level of interest lies at the 0.382 Fib retracement near $1.92. In fact, the token could end up testing the level sooner rather than later. The underwhelming volume suggests buyers are not yet stepping in with conviction. A failure to hold this area could push XRP price further down toward the 0.236 level at $1.80. This aligns with the Fibonacci confluence zone mentioned in recent Elliott Wave and trendline breakdown analyses.
On the off chance of a reversal, the XRP Ledger token would face resistance near $2.12, just above its 200-day (green) EMA trendline. Flipping the immediate resistance could help XRP price target the resistance near $2.26 before correcting.
The RSI reads at 35 and is trending lower, approaching oversold territory but not yet offering divergence. This suggests that more downsides are possible before a reactive bounce. In short, XRP is approaching this structure’s last strongholds of support. A bounce at $1.80 is plausible, but without external bullish catalysts or a shift in macro sentiment, that bounce may be short-lived.
