NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin (BTC) price surged to a historic all-time high of $109,356 on Jan. 20, riding on strong on-chain metrics, including increasing profitability among holders and significant exchange outflows. Macro optimism under President Trump’s crypto-friendly policies has also contributed to Bitcoin’s continued upward momentum. The prime crypto token could now risk a sell-off as retail holders could start booking profits.
The token’s recent rally now faces immediate resistance near $112,320, aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Flipping this resistance could pave the way for a move toward the next target near $121,790, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
On the downside, BTC holds immediate support near $98,900, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. A drop below this level could force BTC price to retest the key 100-day EMA (blue) support near $90,591, the 0.236 retracement. The price remains comfortably above the 20-day EMA at $99,345 and the 50-day EMA at $96,322, signaling sustained bullish momentum.
The RSI sits at 66.26, showing strong momentum while avoiding overbought territory. A breakout above $112,322 could confirm the continuation of the rally, while losing the $98,884 support may trigger short-term profit-taking.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Strong Holder Confidence
Critical on-chain metrics showcasing strong market sentiment support Bitcoin’s recent ascent to an all-time high of $109,356 on Jan. 20.
The MVRV-Z Score, which measures the divergence between Bitcoin’s market value and its realized value, is in a historically bullish range. Elevated MVRV-Z levels have often preceded sustained upward price momentum during bull markets.
However, if the metric approaches extreme levels, it could signal overvaluation and the possibility of a correction. The current reading suggests room for further upside but calls for vigilance in monitoring changes in market sentiment.
The Total Supply in Profit highlights that over 95% of Bitcoin holders are now in profit. This aligns with previous bull market phases when widespread profitability fueled optimism and long-term holding behavior. That said, extremes in this metric can lead to profit-taking, potentially slowing the rally if momentum weakens.
The Exchange Net Position Change chart reveals consistent outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges. Net outflows typically indicate reduced selling pressure as investors transfer funds to cold wallets for long-term holding. This trend supports the bullish narrative and suggests a continuation of the current Bitcoin price trajectory if outflows persist.
These metrics collectively point to robust market confidence and reduced sell pressure, suggesting Bitcoin has the potential to test higher resistance levels. However, investors should remain cautious, as overly bullish conditions could lead to corrections.
Trump’s Crypto Agenda Powers Bitcoin’s Price Surge
Trump’s administration is shaping expectations for regulatory shifts, including the potential creation of a national Bitcoin reserve. This speculation has heightened institutional interest, further boosting Bitcoin’s appeal as a strategic asset.
Data from Polymarket shows a 55% probability of Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office, reflecting rising confidence in policy changes favoring digital assets.
Another Polymarket event suggests a 45% chance of Trump signing a cryptocurrency-related executive order on his first day as president, further fueling Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.
Broader macroeconomic signals reinforce these expectations. The Federal Reserve’s dovish tone has weakened the U.S. dollar, redirecting liquidity toward Bitcoin and other alternative assets. Global economic shifts, such as tightening monetary policies in Asia and Europe, have also increased interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional financial uncertainties.
Trump’s influence extends beyond policy speculation. His campaign messaging on blockchain innovation and digital assets has shifted sentiment toward cryptocurrencies. Investors are watching for tangible policy announcements, including executive orders or regulatory reforms that could further propel Bitcoin’s price.
While optimism runs high, any deviation from anticipated policies could introduce volatility, making Bitcoin price’s next moves highly dependent on the administration’s actions and macroeconomic trends.
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