Bitcoin (BTC) price has entered a sharp pullback ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, raising questions about whether the decline has further to run.
The token has slipped more than 10% from its mid-August peak near $125,000, dropping to about $112,400 on Aug. 22. The daily chart shows Bitcoin breaking below its 50-day EMA, while testing support around the 100-day EMA, with the RSI sliding toward oversold territory. That combination highlights weakening momentum as traders brace for heightened volatility.
Attention now shifts to Powell’s impending remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium. Historically, this has set the tone for September’s market direction. With investors divided over the pace of U.S. rate cuts and their impact on risk assets, Bitcoin faces a critical test: whether the speech triggers another leg lower or sets the stage for a fourth-quarter rebound.
Powell Post-Speech Risks Point Lower
The upcoming speech has investors worried about the consequences of Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance. X-based independent analyst Crypto Rover presented an optimistic roadmap. He argues that “September brings weakness” and has historically preceded powerful fourth-quarter rallies.
Rover’s chart points to more than 100% gains in previous cycles, suggesting the present decline may simply be part of a repeatable pattern. For him, the volatility is an entry point rather than a warning.
Skeptics Weigh-In
However, other posts share a far more cautious tone. Crypto analyst Lau’s analysis stresses that both hawkish and dovish stances in 2023 and 2024 produced the same outcome: a short-lived rally followed by a decisive dump.
That pattern undercuts Rover’s bullish reading and frames Powell’s speech as a volatility spark that ends in renewed selling. His underscores the sequence—Bitcoin reacts positively in the first hours or days, only to unwind the move quickly.
IBCIG built on that skepticism with a tactical view. This analyst notes that Bitcoin has been chopping in a range and that the speech will determine the breakout.
A failure to deliver dovish clarity could see the market flush lower toward round-number supports, while even a dovish surprise might only trap prices in “ranging purgatory.” This aligns with current technicals, where Bitcoin trades below its 50-day EMA and clings to the 100-day with momentum fading.
Economists’ expectations also tilt the balance toward caution. Fed funds futures still price in a September cut, but the odds have slipped as inflation data remain sticky.
Powell is expected to keep optionality intact, avoiding a firm signal. That outcome risks disappointing traders seeking conviction. Against that backdrop, the higher-probability path is additional downside in the near term, even if history later delivers a rebound. At this juncture, the risks lean lower.
Technical Views Split on Bitcoin’s Next Move
The debate over Bitcoin’s next step does not end with macro catalysts. Technical analysts are equally divided on whether the recent drop is the start of a deeper weakness or a setup for reversal.
Crypto analyst BitBull leans toward further weakness, comparing current consolidation with earlier Q2 ranges that ended in capitulation before a major rally. He warns that Bitcoin could slip below $110,000, marking the kind of washout that often clears the way for new highs. Per BitBull, whales recycle the same playbook: force a breakdown, shake out weak hands, then ride the recovery.
However, another analyst, ZYN, challenges that reading. This analyst highlights a double bottom forming at current levels. Past instances in April and June delivered rallies of 50% and 25%. ZYN argues that even half that strength now would send the BTC USD pair above $127,000 before the quarter ends. For him, the pattern is not about capitulation but momentum, with the structure acting as a launchpad rather than a trap.
Another analyst, Merlijn, adds a third perspective. He focuses on a completed inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Merlijn argues that the retest already happened and that the next leg will carry Bitcoin into price discovery, skipping over intermediate resistance. The range of views underscores the split facing traders. The broader setup from technicals and sentiment remains conflicted, but the central theme holds: the risk of another push lower is real, even as competing voices argue the opposite.
