Ripple Labs has officially concluded its long-running legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the SEC will no longer pursue its appeal against the company. This ends a $1.3 billion lawsuit that began in December 2020 over the alleged sale of unregistered XRP securities.
Industry Experts Say XRP ETF Is ‘Obvious’
Now that the SEC has dropped its appeal, many believe XRP could soon be approved for an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Nate Geraci, president of investment advisory firm ETF Store, said it is “obvious” that an XRP ETF is only a matter of time. He believes major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity could be among the first to launch such a product.
An ETF allows investors to buy shares linked to an asset, such as XRP, without directly owning the cryptocurrency. A U.S.-approved XRP ETF would open the door for traditional investors and institutions to gain exposure to XRP through regulated platforms.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also expects approvals by the second half of 2025. He also pointed to Ripple’s favorable court outcome and improving relations with regulators as key reasons behind his prediction.
Garlinghouse also revealed that at least ten XRP ETF applications are currently awaiting SEC approval. These include spot, leveraged, and inverse ETFs. As of mid-March, companies such as Bitwise, WisdomTree, 21Shares, ProShares, and Franklin Templeton had filed for XRP-based funds.
The SEC has already acknowledged a spot XRP ETF filing from Bitwise. This acknowledgment came just days after Cboe BZX Exchange submitted a proposal to list multiple XRP ETFs, including the 21Shares Core XRP Trust.
Polymarket Gives 86% Chance of ETF Approval in 2025
Betting activity on crypto prediction platform Polymarket shows strong confidence in XRP ETF approval. As of March 26, users gave an 86% chance that the SEC will approve the ETF by the end of 2025. However, expectations are more cautious for a mid-year approval. The odds for an ETF being approved before July 31 stand at just 42%.
The prediction market has gained a reputation for accuracy. According to data platform Dune Analytics, Polymarket’s forecasts have been over 90% accurate in the month leading up to actual outcomes.
At the time of reporting, over $55,000 has been wagered on the XRP ETF approval bet.
Despite the positive legal outcome, XRP’s price did not rise significantly. On March 19, the day Ripple announced the end of the SEC case, XRP was trading at $2.32. XRP is now trading at $2.41, down 1.4% from a day ago.
