The number of XRP transactions exceeding $1 million has dropped by nearly 92% since early March 2025. On-chain data from Santiment shows that on March 1, over 220 such high-value transactions occurred. By June 12, the count fell to just 18 — marking one of the steepest declines in whale activity this year.
Price Holds Steady, But Whales Step Aside
XRP’s price fell from $2.38 on March 1 to $2.24 on June 12 — a 5.88% decline. While relatively stable compared to broader crypto volatility, this price flatness coincides with a retreat by large investors.
Whale transactions, typically those over $1 million, are often interpreted as moves by institutions or high-net-worth entities. Their reduced activity signals that major players are either pausing accumulation or avoiding distribution — a sign of market uncertainty rather than directional conviction.
Wallet segmentation data shows that the most pronounced decline has occurred in the [10M–100M] and [100M–1B] XRP holding groups. These cohorts had increased activity earlier in the year but have since moved sideways or trimmed positions. Meanwhile, the [1M–10M] cohort remains relatively stable, suggesting that smaller strategic holders are maintaining their allocations.
This shift in distribution reflects growing indecision among whales, possibly in response to ongoing legal ambiguity in the Ripple vs. SEC case and the lack of new catalysts in the XRP ecosystem.
Exchange Reserves Continue to Decline
XRP reserves on Binance have dropped from over 3.25 billion in late 2024 to around 2.87 billion in June 2025 — a decline of roughly 11.7%. Lower exchange reserves often imply fewer tokens available for selling, which can be interpreted as a sign of reduced sell pressure or increased long-term holding.
However, combined with the whale transaction collapse, it also signals deteriorating liquidity. When both supply and trading participation fall simultaneously, price movement typically compresses.
Network growth — the number of new wallet addresses interacting with XRP — has declined sharply. It dropped from over 10,000 in early March to just 3,263 as of June 11, reflecting a 67% decrease in new user participation.
XRP’s daily transaction count has also fallen from 1.15 million in March to around 600,000 in June — a 47.8% decline. The drop in both metrics suggests a broader cooling of interest beyond large holders, with even retail activity starting to taper off.
XRP Support Break Raises Downside Risk
On the 4-hour chart, XRP recently dropped below its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, currently near $2.25 and $2.27, respectively. The price is now testing the 100-EMA near $2.24 — a level that previously acted as short-term support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.66, indicating weakening momentum. XRP’s recent rejection from $2.38 — its May high — formed a lower high, suggesting early signs of bearish divergence.
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A break below $2.20 could open the door to a deeper correction toward the $2.05–$2.10 demand zone. If buyers reclaim the $2.30–$2.35 range, bullish momentum may resume, but the current setup leans neutral-to-bearish.
XRP is unlikely to break above $2.50 without renewed whale activity, increased network participation, or legal clarity. In the short term, if price holds above $2.20 and consolidates, a move toward $2.35 is possible. Failure to hold above $2.20 could see XRP retest $2.10
