Bitcoin (BTC) has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure near the $60,000 support level since early June, encouraging some traders to declare that the cryptocurrency has already formed a bottom.
Everything is going exactly as I told you.
$58k was the bottom.
The bear market is over.
No more sell pressure.
We’re entering the most parabolic phase of the bull cycle.
This is the phase where you wake up $50K+ richer every day, for weeks.
For the record, I was the only… pic.twitter.com/9qieIdjUxG
— Cup (@cryptocupra) July 30, 2026
The resilience has strengthened expectations of a sustained recovery toward $100,000, with prominent bulls arguing that the broader bear market is over and that Bitcoin is entering the most explosive phase of its cycle.
However, Bitcoin’s ability to defend $60,000 does not necessarily confirm a lasting bottom.
A combination of weakening on-chain conditions and unfavorable macroeconomic signals suggests that the cryptocurrency may still face another wave of selling before establishing a convincing recovery.
The Bitcoin NUPL Metric Shows We Haven’t Capitulated
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator is one of the most reliable metrics for identifying macro cycle turning points. It essentially measures the aggregate profit or loss of the entire network.
- We are still in profit: As of late July 2026, the NUPL reading sits at 16.12%.
- The Math Matters: The formula for the metric is simply (Market Capitalization – Realized Capitalization) / Market Capitalization. This positive reading means that, on average, the network is still holding onto unrealized profits.
- Where is the Washout: Historically, true macro bottoms and severe capitulation phases occur when NUPL plunges below zero, meaning the majority of the market is underwater. We are simply not seeing the extreme pessimism required for a classic cycle bottom.
The Traditional Tech Sector is De-Risking, Which May Hurt BTC Price
Cryptocurrency does not operate in a vacuum, and it is crucial to observe how traditional equities, particularly high-beta tech stocks, are performing.
- The AI Selloff: Recent weeks have shown major cracks in the tech sector. On July 28, major suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix experienced violent selloffs, dragging the broader South Korean Kospi index down significantly.
- Contagion Risk: This risk-off sentiment in traditional tech and semiconductor stocks indicates a broader market de-risking. When traditional tech bleeds heavily, speculative assets like Bitcoin often suffer collateral damage as investors flee to safety.
A September Rate Hike is Increasingly Likely
The macroeconomic environment remains challenging as persistent inflation forces the Federal Reserve’s hand. Higher borrowing costs act as a direct drain on the liquidity that risk assets like Bitcoin need to thrive.
- Divided Committee: At the July 29, 2026 meeting, the FOMC held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three members notably dissented, favoring a 25 basis point hike.
- Spiking Probabilities: This hawkish undertone has shifted market expectations. There is a 59.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by the September meeting, according to CME FedWatch data.
- Liquidity Drain: If the Fed tightens its policy to combat inflation, it will continue to suppress the capital flows necessary to ignite a new crypto bull run.
With the aggregate network still in profit, a traditional tech selloff underway, and the looming threat of further interest rate hikes, the conditions for a definitive macro bottom are not yet in place.
