Ethereum (ETH) price surged past $3,800 in July 2025, a level the token last touched on Dec. 18, 2024. The recent rally, though cooling off now, has reignited investor interest after months of sluggish price action.
ETH price action, driven by ETF momentum and corporate treasury headlines, marked a sharp reversal from the Ethereum token’s early-year slump. But as price momentum cools and consolidation sets in, attention is shifting to what comes next—and whether this move has deeper fuel.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, believes it does. In a recent X post, Hougan outlined a fresh catalyst that could reshape Ethereum’s demand landscape and send long-term signals flashing green again. The analyst claimed that a $20 billion Ethereum order might be in motion.
Bitwise CIO Sees Ethereum Entering A Supply Squeeze
Hougan claimed that Ethereum was facing the same demand-supply imbalance that fueled Bitcoin’s 2024 bull run. In a post on July 23, Hougan outlined why he believes a structural shift has begun—and why it could drive long-term price pressure.
According to his estimates, Ethereum ETPs and corporate treasuries have purchased 2.83 million ETH since May 15, equivalent to more than $10 billion at current prices. During that same stretch, the Ethereum network has only produced around 88,000 ETH, creating a demand multiple of 32x over new supply.
Hougan noted that ETH ETP inflows remained tepid for nearly a year after launch, with only 660,000 ETH accumulated between July 2024 and May 2025. But activity spiked sharply in mid-May, coinciding with the launch of treasury initiatives by firms like Bitmine and SharpLink. Combined, these two sources of institutional demand flipped the balance.
Looking ahead, Hougan projected that ETPs and crypto treasuries could purchase up to $20 billion worth of ETH over the next year, or approximately 5.33 million tokens. With Ethereum’s expected supply capped near 800,000 ETH for the same period, he sees a possible 7:1 demand-to-supply ratio emerging.
This increase in demand could benefit the ETH USD pair and help the token reach new record highs.
The Bitwise CIO also pointed to under-allocation across ETPs: despite ETH’s market cap sitting at 19% of Bitcoin’s, Ethereum ETPs hold less than 12% of Bitcoin ETP assets. That gap, Hougan suggests, leaves room for catch-up flows. Moreover, he proposed that tokenization and treasury stock premiums could accelerate the trend.
ETH Market Structure Supports Hougan’s Forecast
If Hougan’s estimate seems aggressive, recent market behavior suggests that it isn’t far-fetched.
Spot Ethereum ETF activity has surged since mid-July. Volume data from The Block shows daily ETF transactions spiking sharply, with multiple sessions nearing the $2 billion mark. The move aligns with Hougan’s timeline of institutional accumulation beginning around May 15.
Ethereum’s on-chain metrics show similar expansion. Kyle Chassé reported a 280% jump in volume and a $2 billion rise in open interest within a day. He added that 4.34% of ETH’s supply is now locked into ETFs—highlighting a clear shift toward long-term institutional exposure.
Gas usage has also rebounded. As of July 21, Ethereum consumed over 149 million gas units, according to Etherscan. That level approaches the network’s highest sustained activity zones and typically signals renewed demand from applications and users.
The short-term price structure remains uncertain. Michaël van de Poppe warned that, unless ETH reclaims $3,800, a pullback toward $3,400 is likely. Above all, price action aside, the underlying flows support Hougan’s core argument: the buying pressure from ETFs and treasuries is no longer anecdotal—it is now measurable.
