Cardano (ADA) may be approaching a decisive moment as analysts connect its next price move to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. The Fed is scheduled to meet on September 16–17, with markets widely expecting the first rate cut in September.
Analyst Sssebi (@Av_Sebastian) argued that if the Fed confirms a cut, ADA could break above $1.25 and close September above $1.50. He added that with monetary easing and a potential Cardano ETF approval, the token could “easily hit $3 in the next three months.”
Expectations for a cut are strong after U.S. labor data showed slowing job growth and rising unemployment. Most forecasts point to a 25 basis-point cut. Although some institutions, including Standard Chartered, see room for a deeper 50 basis-point move. A rate cut would lower borrowing costs. This could potentially boost demand for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
SEC Extends ETF Decision to October 26
Alongside monetary policy, attention has turned to regulatory developments. Grayscale filed an amended Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on August 29 for a Cardano ETF that would trade on NYSE Arca under the ticker GADA. The SEC has extended its review deadline until October 26, 2025.
Prediction markets have already priced in optimism. Polymarket odds are showing an 87% probability of approval. Analysts note that an ADA ETF could open the door to billions in institutional inflows. This mirrors the market response to spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs earlier this year.
ADA Tests $0.84 as Analysts Call for Breakout
Cardano is currently trading near $0.85, where it is testing an important resistance level. On the daily chart, the token is holding above a cluster of moving averages, with the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages spread between $0.83 and $0.74. This alignment suggests that strong support has formed underneath the market.
Chart analyst Ali (@ali_charts) pointed to $0.84 as the level ADA must clear to confirm a bullish breakout from its descending wedge formation. A close above that level could unlock further upside toward $1.00 and $1.25. Analysts note that $1.25 is a particularly important ceiling. This is because a weekly close above $1.25 could pave the way for a rally into the $1.80 to $2.00 zone.
Momentum indicators are also leaning neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 51, showing that ADA is neither overbought nor oversold. This balance indicates room for fresh upside if new demand enters the market. Meanwhile, the long-term chart shows that ADA has built a base of support between $0.50 and $0.60, which remains a critical buffer if the breakout attempt fails.
If the Fed delivers a rate cut on September 17 and the SEC approves the ADA ETF in October, analysts believe these dual catalysts could drive Cardano price toward the $2.50 to $3.00 range by the end of the year. Such a move would require ADA not only to clear $1.25 but also to sustain momentum with increased ADA trading volumes and stronger network activity. The downside risks are clear as well. An ETF rejection or delay could limit ADA’s upside to around $1.20. Moreover, a hawkish signal from the Fed could dampen appetite for altcoins.
