NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a historic all-time high of $109,356 on Jan. 20. The recent rally to a new ATH would likely attract more retail traders to the market. Macro optimism under President Trump’s crypto-friendly policies has also contributed to Bitcoin’s continued upward momentum. The prime crypto token could now risk a sell-off as retail holders could start booking profits.
However, institutional investors and private whale wallets would likely be the key to determining the way forward for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price Reaches New ATH: Where To Next?
Bitcoin’s recent rally to a record high of $109,356 has pushed its daily price above critical resistance levels. The Fibonacci retracement levels indicate immediate resistance near $112,300, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the recent high-low range. A successful breakout above this level could open the path to testing the next resistance level, the 0.786 level, near $121,700.
The price currently trades well above key exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 20-day EMA (red) provides support near the $99,400, while the 100-day EMA (blue) acts as support near the $90,450 price level. The BTC USD pair could maintain its upward trajectory if Bitcoin sustains its position above the 20-day EMA. The 200-day EMA, situated near $89,800, signals a healthy long-term trend.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 67.01, reflecting a strong but not overbought condition. This suggests room for further upside without immediate risk of a correction due to overextension. However, any failure to hold above $108,000 could trigger a retracement to the support levels.
Volume analysis shows steady buying pressure, which supports the rally. A spike in volume could confirm a breakout above the resistance levels. Conversely, declining volume near resistance could indicate weakening momentum.
Trump’s Influence On The Recent BTC Rally
Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally coincides with increased market speculation around U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies. Trump’s administration has signaled a pro-cryptocurrency stance, with plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and appoint crypto-friendly officials to key regulatory positions. Notably, the nomination of Paul Atkins to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is anticipated to foster a more accommodating regulatory environment for digital assets.
Polymarket data highlights the growing anticipation of significant crypto-related actions under Trump’s administration.
A key market event is the 55% probability that Trump will establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. Such a move would cement Bitcoin as a strategic asset, potentially driving institutional demand and fostering broader adoption.
Additionally, Polymarket reflects a 45% probability of Trump issuing a cryptocurrency-related executive order on Day 1 of his presidency. This speculation, combined with his campaign rhetoric emphasizing blockchain innovation and Bitcoin’s economic potential, has fueled the bullish sentiment.
These developments align with macroeconomic cues favoring Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve’s recent dovish policy stance has weakened the U.S. dollar, while global uncertainties, including tightening monetary policies in Europe and Asia, have redirected capital flows toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.
On a macroeconomic level, the dollar has exhibited defensive behavior as traders brace for Trump’s return to the White House. The yen has strengthened in anticipation of the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates, potentially raising borrowing costs to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Cryptocurrency investors are anticipating executive orders from Trump to reduce regulatory barriers and promote digital assets, including a digital token launched by Trump that surged in value.
