Bitcoin week ahead Ep10: Expect a calmer week after NFP-backed ral…

YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin spiked to $35,740.30 in response to a mixed US jobs report Friday but lacked strong follow-through in the new week as the prices corrected lower by almost 3.5%.

Also read: Bitcoin week ahead Ep09: Watch out NFP report on Friday.

In detail, the headline nonfarm payroll (NFP) data showed that the US added 850,000 new jobs in June — a positive development that resonated with the Federal Reserve’s plans to achieve maximum employment before tapering its loose monetary policies effective since March 2020. Nevertheless, the big feat came with a slight drawdown in the overall US unemployment rate, which rose from 5.8% to 5.9% in May.

Labor Force Participation Rate (green line) was unchanged at 61.6%. Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

Bitcoin going back to $30,000?

The mixed report dashed hopes for earlier than anticipated tightening of the Fed’s near-zero interest rate policy and $120bn monthly asset purchase program. That was evident in the sharp drop in the US government bond yields on Friday, another factor that was instrumental in sending the non-yielding safe-havens like gold and Bitcoin higher.

Also read: Bitcoin week ahead Ep08: Early Monday sell-off towards $32K spells trouble.

Bitcoin, in particular, jumped a modest 0.8% to $33,788 on Friday and continued surging throughout the weekend. On Saturday, the benchmark cryptocurrency was up 2.52% to $34,998; and on Sunday, it reached $35,740.30 in a follow-up 2.31% price rally.

Bitcoin sell-off resumes above $35,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Entering the new weekly session met with a bearish response. The area above $35,000 served as a cue to traders to secure their short-term profits. From a technical standpoint, bulls would need to reclaim $35,000 and the 50-day simple moving average (50-day SMA; the blue wave) as supports to set the stage towards $40,000-42,000. Otherwise, the risks of falling towards $30,000, or the 50-week simple moving average (50-week SMA; the magenta curve) would stay intact.

Also read: Bull market to Bitcoin: Wake me up when September ends

New signs of bullish life

Fundamentally, the week ending on July 11 appears quiet. The US is observing independence day on Monday, so that the markets will be closed for the holiday. Events on Tuesday and Wednesday look irrelevant to the cryptocurrency sector. Meanwhile, on Thursday, a report on initial jobless claims will be out that could impact Bitcoin via the US dollar and government yields markets. Friday is quiet.

On-chain indicators look positive for the time being. According to Glassnode, a data analytics service, the Bitcoin supply held by whales has increased ever since its price fell to $30,000 on May 19. Whales are clusters of addresses that hold 1,000-10,000 BTC. The number rose by over 80,000 to 4.216mm BTC last Friday.

Bitcoin whale supply and price correlation. Source: Glassnode

The accumulation suggests that wealthy investors have started reloading their Bitcoin reserves while expecting a price boom. While not guaranteed, increased whale activity influences small retail traders to purchase Bitcoin as well. Overall, it means Bitcoin’s interim bias is skewed to the upside.