- Bitcoin opens the new week in the red after crashing 10.55% in the last one.
- The BTC price downtrend appears amid a rising whale distribution.
- This week’s Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole will dictate the next trend.
YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — Welcome to another Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weekly price analysis, where we discuss last week’s surprising retreat that wiped out nearly $140 billion from the market — and what it means for the new weekly session.
Bid-Adieu to Bitcoin’s Bloodiest Week Since November 2022
Bitcoin dropped about 10.55% to around $25,600 last week, logging its worst Monday-to-Sunday session since November 2022. The selloff appeared against a mix of depressive catalysts, namely rumors about Elon Musk’s massive BTC dump via SpaceX, China’s economic crisis, and rising US yields.
Most of these catalysts remain in place in the new weekly session beginning Aug 21. The BTC price was down nearly 1% on the day while accompanying lower trading volumes. In other words, the market is taking a breather after the last week’s run-down, unsure about this week’s direction.
Real Yields Rise Ahead of Jerome Powell Speech
Bitcoin’s red start to the new week coincides with a rise in the US real yields.
Notably, on Aug 21, the US 10-year TIPS climbed to 1.99%, the highest in fourteen years. Rising real yields reflect the market’s anticipations that the Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation down.
The real yields have risen to 0.4% alone in August, just ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Aug 24-26. If Powell stays hawkish, akin to his “higher for longer interest rates” policy, the Bitcoin price may drop sharply ahead of the week’s close.
Conversely, an accommodative stance may help Bitcoin price stabilize around $25,000, a psychological support level, followed by a modest rebound in the days leading up to the next FOMC meeting on Sep 19-20.
Bitcoin Whales Hurt BTC Price’s Upside Prospects
Bitcoin whales — entities with more than 1,000 BTC — have started selling their tokens ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. That underscores fears about a potential rate hike in September among Bitcoin’s richest investors’ cohort.
Whale actions influence market trends, i.e., they increase the likelihood of smaller investors to copycat the trades of richer investors. In other words, the Bitcoin price may decline below $25,000 if the whale dump persists in the week ending Aug 27.
Bitcoin Price Prediction in August 2023
From a technical standpoint, the Bitcoin price holds firm above its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave), near $25,660. The wave has served as the bottom to Bitcoin’s long-term downside cycles, preceding massive bull runs, as shown below.
A potential rebound from the 200-week EMA wave could have the Bitcoin price eye $26,900 as its next upside target in August. Conversely, a drop below it risks a sustained selloff by month’s end, which could ripple into the September session.
Suppose it happens. Then, the BTC price’s downside target shifts to historical support levels near $20,000 and $15,000 in 2023.