Bitcoin (BTC) price failed to hold on to its weekend gains, which helped the prime cryptocurrency reach the $108,800 price mark. As trading began on June 30, BTC bulls capitulated under increased selling pressure, resulting in Bitcoin price dropping to levels near the $105,000 mark on July 1.
However, despite the rejection, BTC managed to stabilize above the $105,000 support zone, preserving its broader bullish structure. Bitcoin bulls restarted their attempts for a rally, helping the token cross above $106,000 as trading began on July 2. The move followed Bitcoin’s strong monthly and quarterly closes, which signaled that the benchmark cryptocurrency’s long-term momentum remained intact.
Still, signs of exhaustion have started to creep in across multiple metrics, raising questions about whether BTC has enough fuel left for a clean breakout past $110,000.
LTH Conviction Cooling Despite BTC’s Record Candle Close
Bitcoin’s price closed June with its highest-ever monthly and quarterly candles, just under $110,000, as highlighted by Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research.
The analyst noted that the close signaled continued strength in the broader market. Yet under the surface, long-term holders (LTHs) appear less euphoric than they were at previous cycle peaks.
On-chain analyst Darkfost pointed out in an X post that unrealized profits among LTHs have dropped to approximately 220%, down from 300% in March 2024 and 350% in December 2024. The shift suggests that even as price action remains strong, conviction at the long-term holder level is softening.
The average realized price for LTHs now stands near $39,000, meaning that most holders still have substantial gains. However, the drawdown in the MVRV ratio signals a maturing rally, not one at its euphoric peak. Historically, BTC tops have aligned with far more aggressive profit margins among holders. Darkfrost estimated that BTC would need to rally to $140,000 to restore those prior unrealized profit levels, indicating potential upside.
At the same time, institutional interest shows no signs of retreating. Spanish-listed company Vanadi Coffee announced a strategic shift to become Spain’s largest Bitcoin-holding public firm, with a €1 billion investment commitment. The firm also increased its holdings to 54 BTC, signaling continued corporate conviction.
This growing divergence between macro-level price strength and cooling on-chain metrics creates a nuanced market structure. It implies that while BTC’s recent highs are notable, the conditions associated with true market tops—excessive profits, overconfidence, and broad sell pressure—have yet to emerge fully.
Analysts Stick to Bullish Narratives
Despite BTC USD pair’s rejection near $108,800, prominent chart analysts remain largely bullish, interpreting the recent price consolidation as part of a healthy continuation pattern.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin’s current positioning resembles past post-halving expansions from 2017 and 2021. In a macro comparison, he showed that each bull market experienced mid-cycle slowdowns near resistance before resuming parabolic trends. His latest chart placed BTC just past the slowdown phase, implying a potential breakout continuation if historical patterns repeat.
Crypto analyst AO pointed to a new “bullish cross” on his momentum oscillator overlay, which has historically coincided with the start of previous bull runs. His multi-cycle comparison aligns the recent uptick with prior acceleration points, suggesting that the current cycle may still be in its second leg. Rekt Capital also estimated that the current bull market is only 88% complete, with “parabolic advances” typically forming near the end.
CryptoFella speculated that the current rally could top out near $138,000-$140,000. Following this, the capital would likely shift into ETH and altcoins.
As such, it seems market participants believe BTC’s structure remains strong, even amid short-term volatility. Many are expecting the formation of Bitcoin’s next leg higher before long-term holders begin large-scale distribution.
