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Blow to Bitcoin bears as daily exchange inflow drops to yearly low

Blow to Bitcoin bears as daily exchange inflow drops to yearly low
Image by Madalin Calita from Pixabay
  • Daily inflow of Bitcoin to exchange wallets at 50-day low
  • Miners are HODLing 22% of block subsidy issuance
  • BTC hash-rate recovering after Chinese crackdown

YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — While the Bitcoin (BTC) price fell to its 6-month low just a week ago and is fluctuating in a new $32-35k band, more holders continue accumulating. A breakdown of market sentiments shows the bears will likely pull back to a winter sleep early this year!

More investors are pulling out of exchanges prompting a long-run optimism towards the world’s largest-capping cryptocurrency. 

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The latest Santiment analysis prompts a 50-day drop of total supply on exchanges said to signal “diminishing selling pressure.” 

Are bears pulling back?

The change in position is an indicator of HODLing and Accumulation. However, according to Glassnode, this kind of peak is not frequent. 

At 6000 BTC/month accumulation, the HODLing rate is at 22%. The net position last time hit a similar mark in November 2019 and stayed high, leading up to the all-time high of BTC price in April of this year. 

Bitcoin, Blow to Bitcoin bears as daily exchange inflow drops to yearly low
The Week On-chain (Week 19, 2021). Source: Glassnode.com

Why is the Bitcoin sell-pressure weakening?

In June-July 2021, the massive slump in the Bitcoin market price started a selling craze until the 5th of July. But while the newbies are trying to minimize their losses on the downward trend, the long-term investors are stacking up their private wallets, signaling hope for upward movement later this year.

The forecast by Willy Woo suggested that technical analysis showed a near-certain prevalence of bearish behavior. The speculative Bitcoin “whales” were buying in the upswing that started from Feb 2020, and after the peak was reached, these players flipped the Bitcoin norm of a bullish market into a bearish one for four months now. But looking at fundamentals, the cryptocurrency appears to be flipping again.

After hitting the one-year low at 84.79m TH/s on July 3rd, the Bitcoin hash-rate 7-day average is slowly recovering. Coindesk analysts attribute a huge chunk of these fluctuations to China, which’s been kicking out miners to low-cost regions of energy, the US and Kazakhstan. As the standing companies relocate, the hash rates can recover and move the price back up.

Related: Beijing company suspected of cryptocurrency trading faces China’s central bank’s wrath

Although we have not seen this significant divergence in the market since late 2020, the phenomenon has occurred on a smaller scale a zillion times. The Bitcoin price starts slipping; risk-averse holders pull out, high-stakers accumulate, pushing the demand and the cost upwards. As a result, this kind of V-shaped pattern can be seen in any timeframe.

BTC price 1-month. Source: CoinDesk.com
BTC price 1-month. Source: CoinDesk.com

So, is this a likely forecast for a resurgence to a new peak? Possibly. Nevertheless, the market has seen extreme highs and lows with no warning. So it would be no surprise if, after some fluctuation, the marker dropped below $30k again. Although it’s just another number, crossing round-number thresholds could create further unease among Bitcoin investors, and the push towards selling could revitalize.

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