NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com)—Ethereum (ETH) broke above its two-month downtrend on Apr. 21, reclaiming the $1,600 mark. The move came as on-chain and technical signals converged to suggest a potential trend reversal.
ETH traded at $1,626 in the early Asian session, up 2.5% in 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The recovery followed a fresh buy signal from the TD Sequential indicator and an uptick in whale activity.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez flagged the TD Sequential signal as a potential catalyst. “Big week ahead for Ethereum,” he wrote on X, suggesting a bullish momentum shift could be underway.
Ethereum Whale Wallets Light Up As Exchange Supply Drops
Whales have continued accumulating ETH, reinforcing bullish sentiment. According to LookonChain, a major whale withdrew 1,897 ETH worth over $3 million from Bitget on Apr. 21. That same wallet has moved a total of 3,844 ETH, or $6.51 million, to self-custody since Apr. 3.
Ali Martinez reported that whales offloaded 143,000 ETH in the past week, suggesting some took profits during recent volatility. However, large holders appear to be returning, with exchange supply dropping to levels last seen in Oct. 2024.
Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant confirmed the decline in ETH reserves on centralized exchanges. Historically, this trend signals reduced selling pressure and foreshadows upward price movements.
Merlijn, a popular trader on X, said Ethereum is nearing the bottom of its accumulation zone, warning that “missing this setup could be the biggest mistake of 2025.”
Historical Buy Zone Could Mark Cycle Low
Technical analyst abramchart highlighted that past bull runs began near or below the lower band of a key pricing model—typically a zone of deep-value accumulation.
ETH now trades near its realized price level, a metric reflecting average on-chain acquisition cost. When prices dip below this band, markets often signal local bottoms, followed by multi-month rallies.
Still, abramchart urged caution. “Watching price action near the lower realized band will be critical,” he wrote. A clean bounce could spark a reversal, while a sustained break below might suggest continued downside.
$1,528.50 Support Level Sees Heavy Demand
ETH has maintained strong support above the $1,528.50 mark. According to IntoTheBlock data cited by Ali Martinez, over 4.82 million ETH was acquired at that level by 2.61 million addresses.
That demand zone now acts as a key battleground between bulls and bears. A breakdown below this area could invite fresh selling, while holding it may provide a launchpad toward $2,000 in the coming weeks.
Ted Pillows, another crypto market commentator, noted ETH has broken out of its multi-month downtrend for the first time since Feb. 2025. He stated that Ethereum holding above $1,600 could open the path to a retest of $2,000.
Ethereum’s Value Accrual Faces Roadblocks Post-Dencun
Despite technical optimism, Ethereum’s fundamentals still raise questions. A report from Binance Research showed the blockchain’s data availability roadmap has undermined ETH value accrual since the Dencun upgrade.
Ethereum’s scalability has surged 15.95x due to cheaper Layer 2 (L2) operations. However, this has slashed fees paid to Ethereum’s Layer 1 (L1), damaging the “ultrasound money” thesis tied to gas burn.
L2s now settle for minimal costs, redirecting value away from ETH. Competitors like Solana and BNB Chain are capturing higher L1 fees, intensifying concerns.
Some developers have proposed repricing the blob fee market to improve value accrual, but that could prompt L2s to migrate to lower-cost alternatives such as Celestia or EigenDA. Meanwhile, based rollups like Taiko—capable of maximizing L1 fee contribution—remain sidelined in Ethereum’s upcoming upgrades, Pectra and Fusaka.
Ethereum’s reclaim of $1,600, combined with whale accumulation and buy signals, has revived bullish sentiment. However, structural concerns around fee capture and value accrual remain unresolved.
While short-term indicators suggest a breakout could push ETH toward $2,000, the sustainability of that move depends on broader market support and the network’s ability to regain its economic moat.
