Bitcoin (BTC) hit an ATH above $123,000 on July 14 after Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson reiterated his long-standing $250,000 forecast on July 11. He called the next market phase a “gigachad bull run,” pointing to pending U.S. legislation and macro shifts as the main drivers.
That outlook is no longer limited to crypto founders. Traditional banks and asset managers are now echoing similar targets as ETF inflows surge and regulatory clarity begins to emerge.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $2.7 billion in net inflows on July 10 and 11, with back-to-back daily entries exceeding $1 billion for the first time since January. Total inflows since approval have crossed $50 billion, showing sustained institutional appetite for Bitcoin as an asset class.
This trend underpins several revised forecasts across the industry—including one of the most notable from a major global bank.
Standard Chartered Says $250K Bitcoin Is Now ‘Rational’
In May, Geoff Kendrick, head of FX and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, publicly revised the bank’s prior $120,000 Bitcoin target. Speaking to CNBC, Kendrick said:
We thought $120K was ambitious, but clearly we were too conservative. The flows we’re seeing now are not only sustainable—they’re accelerating.
The bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025. If institutional demand continues at current levels and regulation progresses, Kendrick believes $250,000 is within reach.
He added that if traditional portfolio managers allocate even 2–3% of assets to Bitcoin, such a valuation would be “not only possible—it’s rational.”
Legislation Could Unlock Trillions in Capital Flow
Hoskinson supports this thesis and emphasizes the importance of regulatory catalysts. He pointed to two key U.S. bills: the GENIUS Stablecoin Act and the CLARITY Act. The GENIUS Act passed the Senate majority in June and is currently awaiting House debate during “Crypto Week,” which began July 14.
Both bills aim to resolve overlapping jurisdictional conflicts between the SEC and CFTC. In a July 11 post on X, Hoskinson called the proposals “the catalyst,” suggesting they would trigger major inflows once legal clarity is established.
Support for this view comes from institutional modeling as well. ARK Invest, in its 2025 valuation update, projects that if global institutions allocate just 2.5% of portfolios to Bitcoin, the asset could reach $682,000 by 2030. While that’s a long-term projection, it aligns with Standard Chartered’s $250K target over a shorter time frame. This is particularly the case if legal certainty speeds up allocation decisions.
If institutions were to allocate 2.5% of their portfolios to bitcoin, ARK’s price target would rise to ~$682,000 by 2030.
— ARK Invest, July 2025
Elon Musk Backs Bitcoin as Fed Loosens Grip on Liquidity
Beyond legislation, monetary conditions are also shifting in Bitcoin’s favor. In June, the Federal Reserve reduced its Treasury runoff from $25 billion to $5 billion monthly. This is a move that Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, interpreted as the early stages of quantitative easing (QE).
At the same time, U.S. national debt recently crossed $36.5 trillion. This has prompted investors to revisit Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against fiat risks. On July 11, Elon Musk responded on X to a question whether his newly proposed political initiative—the America Party—would support Bitcoin.
Fiat is hopeless, so yes.
— Elon Musk
On-Chain Data Shows Holders Accumulating Despite Price Rises
Bitcoin’s bullish case isn’t only visible in external factors. On-chain metrics continue to show accumulation across the board. According to Glassnode, wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC have grown by 3% month-over-month.
Retail participation is also rising. Smaller holders—often referred to as shrimp and crab wallets—have been adding over 19,000 BTC per month. Monthly miner output remain limited to 13,400 BTC.
Corporate holdings remain concentrated Michael Saylor’s Strategy alone controls more than 600,000 BTC, or approximately 3.2% of the total circulating supply. Over 130 public companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
The post-halving trajectory is also on pace with previous cycles. In 2020, Bitcoin surged from $10,000 to $60,000 within 12 months of the halving event. This year’s halving occurred in April, and Bitcoin has already gained over 26% year-to-date.
