Key Takeaways
- CIA Director William Burns thinks Russia is too dependent on China
- Burns served as the Former US Ambassador to Russia between 2005 and 2008
- China-Russia trade surged in 2022 as exports from Russia to China increased by 43.4%
YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — CIA director William Burns believes Russia’s increasing dependency on Beijing may make it an “economic colony” of China.
Owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the United States-led Western powers have slapped heavy economic sanctions on the Kremlin. However, to avoid pariah status, Russian President Vladimir Putin has deepened relations with Asian and Middle Eastern powers, including China, India, and Saudi Arabia.
The growing trade and political ties between Washington’s adversaries China and Russia have caught the world’s attention. But, while Beijing helps Russia stay afloat by pumping money into its economy, experts wonder if Moscow is jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
“Russia is becoming more and more dependent on China and, in some respects, runs the risk of becoming an economic colony of China over time, dependent for export of energy resources and raw materials,”
the CIA director said at Rice University in Houston.
Burns was drawing parallels between the impact of the war on NATO vs. its impact on Russia.
According to him, Vladimir Putin believed the war would result in a weaker and fractured alliance. However, Burns argued that it has grown more persistent and stronger, having just added a new member, Finland, earlier this month. In addition, Norway, another aspiring country, could join the military alliance soon.
Meanwhile, Russia will only grow weaker. The long-term impact of the sanctions, plus the exit of Western firms from the country, will harm the country’s prospects. The losses and humiliation of the Russian armed forces will also have an effect.
China-Russia economic trade on the rise
Trade relations between Russia and China are growing aggressively.
In 2022, after Moscow invaded Ukraine, trade between the two countries hit a record $190.27 billion. According to official data from Beijing, exports and imports from Russia in 2022 accounted for as much as 3% of the country’s total trade.
The bilateral 2022 trade turnover between Russia and China increased year on year by 29.3%. Exports from Russia to China increased by 43.4%, reaching $114.15 billion.
Meanwhile, exports from China to Russia increased by 12.8% to $76.12 billion. In almost every country with which China has bilateral relations, exports to the country from China tend to be more than imports. However, sanctioned-hit Russia managed to export more to China when compared to its import volumes.
In 2023, the numbers are even more aggressive so far. China’s exports and imports with Russia in January-February doubled from a year earlier. While imports from Russia soared by 31.3% to $18.65 billion, Chinese exports to Russia jumped 19.8% in the same period, reaching a total of $15 billion.
Last month Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow. Following bilateral talks, his counterpart Vladimir Putin pledged to use the Chinese yuan instead of the US dollar to settle its trade with countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Russia has offered China and India crude oil at a 30% discount. Owing to this, Moscow overtook Saudi Arabia as the world’s top energy supplier in 2022.
Former US President Donald Trump recently warned that China could replace the US Dollar as a global reserve currency.
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What did William Burns say about Ukraine?
Since March 2021, William Burns has served as the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). As a seasoned diplomat with over 30 years of experience, he was the Deputy Secretary of State for three years between 2011 and 2014.
One of the countries where Burns served as a diplomat is Russia. Between 2005 and 2008, he was the US Ambassador to Moscow. While he may be repeating President Biden’s theories about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, his sentiments were somewhat different back then.
He was among the few officials to warn Washington that it wouldn’t be smart to provoke Russia using Ukraine.
In his book, “The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal,” Burns narrates what he wrote to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in 2008.
“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin)…Today’s Russia will respond. Russian-Ukrainian relations will go into a deep freeze….It will create fertile soil for Russian meddling in Crimea and eastern Ukraine,”
he warned.
According to the CIA Director, the Russian response would be the same regardless if it was Putin in power or someone else. This refutes the Western argument that Putin invaded Ukraine to maintain his power.
The Russian elite, including Putin’s critics, were always against NATO’s expansion to Russia’s borders.
Today Burns thinks Russia is becoming a Chinese colony. One should be blind not to see how dependent Moscow has become on Beijing. However, if the growing China-Russia relations are not to Washington’s liking, he knows whom to blame.
