NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) — The odds of picking a successful memecoin on Pump.fun are lower than winning a bet at a casino. A recent analysis of Pump.fun memecoin success rates reveal that the chances of finding a profitable memecoin are slimmer than those in a game of roulette, leaving many traders frustrated.
On Aug. 11, memecoin trader Adam highlighted the grim reality of Pump.fun’s success rate in a post on X. Out of 16,357 tokens launched within just 24 hours, only 175 advanced to Raydium, and a mere 19 surpassed the $69,000 market cap threshold.
Adam calculated a 0.12% success rate, branding Pump.fun as a “slaughterhouse” for memecoins. This dismal statistic has left many in the community questioning the platform’s effectiveness in delivering profitable opportunities.
Pump.fun’s Odds Versus Casino Odds
A comparative analysis between Pump.fun and American roulette paints a clear picture of the odds. Adam, who maintains a Pump.fun dashboard on Dune, explained that a $100 investment in a memecoin at a $5,000 market cap could potentially return $1,380 if the token reaches $69,000. However, this scenario occurs in only 0.12% of cases.
In contrast, a $100 bet on a single number in American roulette offers a 2.6% success rate and pays out $3,600. While comparing trading to gambling may not be entirely fair, traders are clearly frustrated by the diminishing opportunities for meaningful returns.+
Pump.fun’s Token Flood: Why Most New Coins Are Doomed to Fail
On August 9, Pump.fun removed its $2 creation fee, leading to a flood of new tokens on the platform. Despite the platform’s safeguards, most of these new launches fail, further frustrating the community.
Pump.fun operates on Solana’s blockchain, allowing memecoins to launch without presales or team allocations. To “graduate” to Raydium, tokens must reach a $69,000 market cap, but few achieve this milestone.
Many traders have taken to social media to voice their concerns, likening Pump.fun to a rigged casino. The platform’s low success rate has led to accusations of favoritism towards insiders and the perpetuation of “rug pulls.”
“Nobody is having fun anymore besides the pump fun team raking in fees,” said @anon_rip on X. @Vertwashere added, “Not entertaining watching things go to zero in seconds,” while @CookerFlips remarked, “Nobody is entertained but your team and your pockets.”
Sapijiju Defends Pump.fun’s Strategy
On Aug. 13, Pump.fun founder Sapijiju addressed the growing criticism over the platform’s decision to remove the coin creation fee, explaining that the move was intended to increase the variety of coins available.
According to Sapijiju, having a larger number of coins boosts the chances of finding assets that traders will find valuable and engaging.
He dismissed concerns about market saturation and the surge in coin launches. Instead, he pointed to other issues driving user dissatisfaction. To address these, he stressed the importance of improving discovery tools. This approach aims to eliminate bad actors and duplicate coins.
Sapijiju also emphasized improvements to the ‘For You’ page, which aims to help users discover more promising investments.
